Aug 30, 2024 8:40:24 AM

Vulcan Platform Summary

This week, Vulcan UC experienced a significant update, adding 150+ MW battery projects to the monitoring project list. This brings the total monitored nameplate capacity to over 80 GW. Batteries present challenges due to their smaller footprint and frequent location in urban areas, making observation difficult. We may remove some batteries from our evaluation due to these factors.

We are currently analyzing battery construction timelines, similar to our previous solar plant analysis. While batteries might have the fastest construction timelines among technologies, achieving full operation can take longer due to testing and operational issues. Our new coverage map now includes more projects in California, Arizona, and Texas, where most battery projects are proposed.

The map below shows only proposed battery projects and their expected online dates. The majority are expected to come online in 2025.

Unfortunately, the proposed batteries listed in EIA-860M do not include Nameplate Energy Capacity (MWh), as they do for operating plants, preventing us from determining duration. Since we focus on 150+ MW batteries, it's likely that these batteries have a duration of over two hours, with four hours being the most common based on historical data.

When reviewing the Vulcan UC results from last week for these battery projects, you'll notice a new status: "Not Observed." This typically indicates cloud coverage at the site. We will attempt to capture these locations this week. For other sites, we have observed a reasonable level of construction in both 2024 and 2025, suggesting that many of the proposed batteries are likely to come online within the proposed year, and potentially even earlier. We have identified a few 2026 and 2027 projects that are currently under construction.

To effectively utilize our database, we recommend selecting projects deemed under construction and incorporating them into your generation stack at a reasonable time. We will provide suggested timeframes as we analyze recent projects in the coming weeks. Projects that do not show signs of construction may never come to fruition, and you may consider applying a discount to them.

Below, we delve into three plants that are not under construction in 2024, as they are unlikely to come online as planned. We also examined some plants that are currently under construction but are not expected to be operational until much later.

Not Under Construction.

63798 Atlas, Utting, La Paz County AZ, 300 MW, Planned Operation 12/2024

8/18/2024