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Expanding Coverage and Improving Accuracy:
This week, Vulcan Under Construction is taking a significant leap forward by incorporating over 70 new plants, representing an additional 11 GW of potential generation capacity. This expansion brings our total coverage to over 200 proposed plants and 50+ GW of capacity. This comprehensive data empowers our clients to build the most accurate generation stack forecasts possible.
Eliminating "Ghost Projects" and Refining Fundamentals:
Many proposed projects never materialize, potentially skewing your fundamental analysis. By identifying and eliminating these "ghost projects" from your outlook, Vulcan Under Construction can dramatically improve the accuracy of your forecasts.
Solar Project Delays: A Case Study:
Consider the US solar market in 2025. The EIA currently forecasts 27 GW of solar capacity coming online. However, our data suggests that the majority of these projects (all but 1.7 GW) are currently less than 50% complete. Even for 2024, only 12 GW out of a projected 27.5 GW have reached this critical milestone. This translates to a potential 40 GW of solar capacity that may be delayed beyond 2025.
Vulcan: Providing Actionable Insights:
Vulcan Under Construction actively tracks approximately 20 GW of these potentially delayed projects. Our visual confirmation capabilities allow us to definitively identify projects that have begun construction, separating reality from speculation. With large utility-scale solar projects typically requiring 18-36 months for completion, projects not yet under construction are unlikely to come online in 2025.
Vulcan Status, a client-exclusive feature, empowers you to seamlessly integrate this up-to-date intelligence into your generation stack forecasts, ensuring you have the most accurate market picture possible.
The Domino Effect: Solar Delays and Gas Market Implications:
Solar generation's impact on natural gas fundamentals is undeniable. The table below indicates that 1 GW of solar capacity can reduce gas demand by 0.03 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). Considering the potential 40 GW delay in solar deployment, this translates to a potential impact of over 1.3 bcf/d on gas demand – a significant shift with cascading effects on power prices.
Vulcan Coal Update: Continued Strong Coal Burn
The Vulcan Coal tool continues to indicate robust coal consumption in the US. Our data reveals a further decline in high-inventory coal plants, suggesting concerns of high inventory is not likely until the fall. Continued strong coal demand could lead to supply shortages for certain coal-fired units.
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