SynMax Research:
SynMax Research:
Based on today’s (1/30) GFS Operational 12Z, total natural gas freeze-offs during the 01/22 through 02/14 time period are expected to be between 60 Bcf to 102.4 Bcf, up from yesterday’s (1/29) 61 Bcf to 100.2 Bcf range as we are now including actualized freeze-offs from our pipeline scrape data. Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX power outages are now assumed to be minimal. The Permian risk of power outages is now ruled out, while we are still factoring in the risk of high-power outages in the Northeast on the upper end of the range.
The low end of the range (61 Bcf) is forecasted with minimal power outages.
The high end of the range (100.2 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in the Northeast.
At this time, while we lean towards the lower end of the range, based on our scrapes, actualized production freeze-offs from 01/20-01/30 have come in at 49 Bcf, which would be in the mid-range of what we have been forecasting.
