SynMax Research:
SynMax Research:
Based on today’s (1/29) GFS Operational 12Z, total natural gas freeze-offs during the 01/22 through 02/13 time period are expected to be between 61 Bcf to 100.2 Bcf, a tighter range from yesterday’s (1/28) 48.8 Bcf to 112.8 Bcf range as we are now including actualized freeze-offs from our pipeline scrape data. Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX outages are significant and are factored in for both the high and low end of the range from 01/25/2026 out to 01/29/2026 with expectations for a return of power after that. The Permian risk of power outages is now ruled out, while we are still factoring in the risk of high-power outages in the Northeast on the upper end of the range. Based on the latest power outage data for the parishes and counties in Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX, an additional 1.96 Bcf/d of production is assumed to be lost from 01/25/2026 to 01/29/2026.
The low end of the range (61 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX based on the latest power outage data and minimal power outages in the Permian and Northeast.
The high end of the range (100.2 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in Haynesville LA & Haynesville TX based on the latest power outage data and significant power outages in the Northeast.
At this time, while we lean towards the lower end of the range, based on our scrapes, actualized production freeze-offs from 01/20-01/29 have come in at 47.8 Bcf, which would be in the mid-range of what we have been forecasting.
