SynMax Research:
SynMax Research:
Based on today’s (1/31) GFS Operational 12Z, total natural gas freeze-offs during the 01/22 through 02/15 time period are expected to be between 70.4 Bcf to 112.2 Bcf, up from yesterday’s (1/30) 60 Bcf to 102.4 Bcf range as colder weather forecasts beginning around 02/12 indicate the return of significant production freeze-offs. We are still factoring in the risk of high-power outages in the Northeast on the upper end of the range.
The low end of the range (70.4 Bcf) is forecasted with minimal power outages.
The high end of the range (112.2 Bcf) is forecasted with significant power outages in the Northeast.
At this time, while we lean towards the lower end of the range, based on our scrapes, actualized production freeze-offs from 01/20-01/31 have come in at 50.9 Bcf, which would be in the mid-range of what we have been forecasting.
