Lower 48 natural gas production continues to outperform and come in above expectations in 2024. Natural gas production pipeline scrapes for the Lower 48, as measured by Hyperion data, have been coming in around 105 Bcf/d so far in February 2024. While January 2024 production was about 1.5 Bcf/d below expectations, the production freeze-off event more than accounted for the shortfall in production expectations. Had there not been a freeze-off event in January 2024, natural gas production would’ve come in slightly above expectations from the long-term production forecast model.
Hyperion’s long-term natural gas forecast model has been predicting around 104.2 Bcf/d for February 2024, assuming 0.5 Bcf/d for production freeze-offs. The 1–15-day weather forecasts indicate that there won’t be any production freeze-offs. Production freeze-off adjusting the 104.2 Bcf/d forecast takes the production forecast up to 104.7 Bcf/d. Even after adjusting for production freeze-off forecasts that will not materialize in February 2024, natural gas production is still coming in slightly above expectations at 105 Bcf/d for the current month.
One region accounting for the production outperformance by a wide margin is the Northeast. Northeast production is significantly outperforming the long-term forecast model by a whopping 1.6 Bcf/d during the current month of February. Northeast production even outperformed during the month of January with all the production freeze-offs.
So far, Northeast producers CNX Resources and National Fuel (Seneca production) have either raised or kept constant 2024 production guidance forecasts as compared to the prior reporting quarter. It will be interesting to see what the other Northeast producers indicate on their 2024 production plans when they report their earnings and guidance forecasts later this month. Stay tuned for the next Hyperion update!
