Hyperion’s long-term production forecast model released in late November-2023 had estimated Lower 48 January-2024 natural gas production freeze-offs at around 1 Bcf/d on average for the month. January on average is the coldest month of the year and it is the month where production freeze-offs are most likely to occur. However, January-2024 is likely going to be a month where production freeze-offs will be lower than 1 Bcf/d on average based on current 1–15-day weather forecasts in the major natural gas producing basins. So far, the only part of the Lower 48 US that will likely see production freeze-offs based on current weather forecasts out until January 18th will be the natural gas producing state of North Dakota.
Texas Production
While low temperatures are forecasted to go below 32 degrees Fahrenheit in Midland, Texas on January 6th and 7th, high temperatures are still forecasted to be well above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. The last time West Texas experienced production freeze-offs was for one day in December-2022. That day, December 23rd, 2022, was the only day that witnessed high temperatures below 32 degrees. Therefore, even West Texas production will not likely experience any production freeze-offs unless high temperatures go below 32 degrees Fahrenheit.
Northeast Production
Northeast production also needs to see high temperatures go below 32 degrees Fahrenheit to have production freeze-offs. The 2 periods, December 2022, and February 2023, when the Northeast experienced production freeze-offs also coincided with high temperatures in Pittsburgh being below 32 degrees Fahrenheit.
North Dakota Production
So far, based on current weather forecasts, North Dakota will be the only natural gas producing sub-region that will likely experience production freeze-offs. Bismarck, North Dakota will be experiencing sub-zero low temperatures from January 7 th until January 18 th. Current production freeze-off estimations for North Dakota from January 7 th until January 18 th are 0.5 Bcf/d based on historical freeze-offs to historical low temperatures. North Dakota production is more resilient to sub-32-degree Fahrenheit temperatures as the pipelines are more winterized. Therefore, production freeze-offs in North Dakota don’t occur until low temperatures get close to zero degrees Fahrenheit.
Summary
Current weather forecasts out until January 18 th don’t indicate any production freeze-offs except for the natural gas producing state of North Dakota. Obviously, this is a dynamic situation as weather forecasts are highly volatile. Stay tuned for next week’s production freeze-off update on the Hyperion channel!
