Lower 48 natural gas production continues to be significantly lower than SynMax’s long-term forecast expectations for the month of April 2024 by around 1.7 Bcf/d on average. Lower 48 natural gas production began coming in well below SynMax’s expectations beginning in March 2024 by about 1.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas production for February 2024 was mostly in line with SynMax’s expectations.
Northeast
The Northeast is one of the regions where natural gas production has been coming in below forecast by a significant amount beginning in March 2024. About 0.5 Bcf/d of the error in March 2024 and April 2024 is occurring in the Southwest Pennsylvania sub-region where EQT has curtailed 1 Bcf/d of natural gas production. EQT isn’t likely to bring back their curtailed production until July 2024 when fixed prices at Dominion South natural gas prices go significantly above $1.50 / MMBtu.
Haynesville
Haynesville makes up the great majority of the rest of the production forecast miss for natural gas production beginning in March 2024. Haynesville Texas and Haynesville Louisiana are contributing roughly equally to the production forecast miss.
Summary
Lower 48 natural gas production continues to actualize lower than Hyperion’s long-term production forecast. Hyperion’s long-term production forecast is based on producer guidance forecasts from quarterly earnings. Hyperion’s production forecast was lower than the general industry average. Hyperion’s next long-term production forecast update will be sometime in May or June when Q1 2024 producer earnings are completed. It is highly likely that natural gas producers will reduce their production forecast guidance which will cause Hyperion’s 2024 production forecast to be reduced at least until the month of July 2024.
