Building upon last week's report, we noted that the largest deviation for new power plants coming online in 2025 is in Texas. This report will demonstrate the ability to drill down into the data available to Vulcan clients.
The database provided by Vulcan UC offers numerous attributes for analysis. The map below illustrates the monitored plants anticipated to be online by 2025, according to EIA data. The distribution of monitored new construction appears to cover most of the state, excluding the central region.
The next map displays the Vulcan status of monitored plants that are either confirmed or identified. These plants have the potential to become operational by 2025. Confirmed plants have been designated as under construction and verified through our satellite image analysis. Due to the reliance on older satellite imagery for confirmation, precise construction start dates are unavailable for confirmed plants. Identified plants exhibit changes detected in our weekly analysis. As these changes are observed within a week, we can estimate a construction start date. Based on this data, it appears that only a few solar plants are likely to achieve commercial operation by 2025.
The limited solar development will likely affect the construction of some battery projects. A significant number of battery projects are associated with solar installations. The following data is derived from our plant database, which is also accessible to clients through Snowflake. At the bottom of this report, we present visual confirmation for five of these large solar projects that are not currently under construction.
We currently do not monitor new battery installations due to the relatively small size of these facilities, which makes visual construction detection challenging. Additionally, we filtered the data to exclude plants designated by the EIA as more than 50% complete. In Texas, there are over 7 GW of projects in this category.
The extensive data available on the Vulcan platform can provide invaluable insights into the future of power markets. Accurate power models require high-quality inputs to produce reliable outputs. The generation stack is a critical component of this input data. Vulcan UC can give you a competitive advantage by providing visual confirmation on new builds to allow you to create the best generation stack available for modeling power prices, power flow, and fuel consumption.
1) Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS, Richland, Navarro County TX, 837 MW, Planned Operation 7/2025
Source: https://www.solarproponent.com/projects/ (Project listed as expected commercial operations in Q2 2026, originally planned for 2024)
8/5/2024 6/6/2024
2) Hollow Branch Creek 1 Solar, Leona, Madison County TX, 700 MW, Planned Operation 12/2025
Source: https://www.solarproponent.com/projects/ (Project listed as expected commercial operation in Q4 2026, originally planned for 2024)
7/10/2024 5/10/2024
3) Clear Fork Creek Solar and BESS SLF, Ezzell, Wilson County TX, 600 MW, Planned Operation 12/2025
Source: https://www.solarproponent.com/projects/ (Project listed as expected commercial operation in Q2 2027, Interconnection agreement executed, security deposit posted, originally planned for 2025)
7/23/2024 5/25/2024
4) Hecate Energy Harley Hand Solar LLC, Trent, Nolan County TX, 514 MW, Planned Operation 8/2025
Source: https://www.hecateenergy.com/projects/ (Project listed as in development)
8/1/2024 6/16/2024
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