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For this week's research, we've compared the Vulcan proposed project timeline to the current EIA 860M outlook and historical trends. Vulcan clients can easily log in and download the "US Proposed Power Project List with Vulcan Rank & Date" file or use the Snowflake database to conduct this analysis. This process is updated weekly with the latest Vulcan UC and EIA 860M data. Users can easily compare this data to their internal genstack using the EIA Plant and Gen ID.
In contrast, the Vulcan Proposed Project Outlook suggests a more moderate buildout, averaging slightly under 3 GW per month, assuming a 20% cancellation rate.
This is the initial version of the Vulcan US Proposed Project Outlook. While we will continue to refine it, it can already be used to create power model scenarios and assess the risk of project delays. By leveraging Vulcan UC insights and project rankings, users can develop various scenarios with different cancellation rates, enabling a granular analysis of the generation stack.
To understand the macro-level impact on natural gas burns, a detailed power model isn't always necessary. By focusing on the largest delayed segment, solar generation, we can estimate the impact on gas generation by state. By assigning capacity factors to each state and calculating the generation difference due to delays, we can estimate the corresponding increase in gas burns. For example, in July 2025, delays in solar projects could lead to a 0.2 to 0.3 BCF/d increase in gas burns. Clients have all this information at their finger tips to do this type of analysis.
Last week Vulcan UC identified land clearing for the following project: Plant ID 67229 Trestles Grid LLC – Battery, Riverside County CA, 150 MW, EIA Status – (U) Under construction, less than or equal to 50 percent complete, Planned Operation 11/2026 – however given the project is in California Vulcan Proposed Online date is August 2027.
11/23/2024 – Land cleared
