Sep 13, 2024 9:27:27 AM

Addition of Vulcan Earliest Online and Vulcan Latest Online Dates

We're excited to announce the addition of Vulcan Earliest Online and Vulcan Latest Online dates to our database. These dates align with the analysis we presented last week.

Furthermore, we've assigned a Vulcan UC date to all confirmed plants by retroactively determining their under-construction start dates. Through this analysis, we've identified a significant discrepancy between the EIA 860 proposed online dates and our calculated online dates.

Based on our analysis, 9 GW of the 82 GW of plants covered will not meet their current EIA-proposed schedules, even if construction were to begin next week.

The graph below illustrates the timeline of these 9 GW of plants that are listed with overly early online dates. As an example, a combined cycle plant with ID 58930 in Texas, as listed by the EIA, is shown to have a proposed online date of June 2025. However, EIA's status indicates that it is awaiting regulatory approval but has not yet begun construction - also validated by Vulcan UC.

Assuming all plants start construction within a week, the following schedule highlights those that will likely miss their EIA-proposed online dates:

This analysis reveals that many solar plants will miss the upcoming winter, while gas plants are more likely to miss next summer. Plant 58930, in particular, is unlikely to be operational before August 2025 unless it achieves an unprecedented construction timeline.

This analysis is crucial for both FTR and power price trading. Visual confirmation of this discrepancy is essential. To provide concrete evidence, we've included satellite images of plant 58930, clearly showing that it is not under construction, further supporting our historical timeline analysis.

If you're seeking to generate alpha or require a more comprehensive genstack, we invite you to explore the Vulcan UC platform.

5/31/2024 7/1/2024