SynMax Vulcan Research Update: August 860M Analysis

This month’s update of the EIA-860M data reflects an addition of to the U.S. power project pipeline. Notably, our analysis indicates a significant slowdown in the proposal of new power generation projects. This is the lowest August addition on record, outside of the COVID-19 period, tracing back to 2018.

This deceleration may be a market reaction to the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) legislation, which appears to be prompting power developers to pivot from renewable energy to natural gas projects. Alternatively, it could signal a broader economic slowdown. If the latter is true, this trend of slowing generation growth is particularly concerning given the significant projected power demand from Artificial Intelligence (AI) expansion. The latest additions to the project list show the most natural gas capacity proposed since 2018, underscoring this shift.

Key Project Additions and Market Dynamics

• The single largest project addition this month is a combined-cycle gas plant in North Dakota, expected to be online between 2029 and 2030.
• The next most active state was Arizona, which saw a mixture of new battery storage, natural gas, and solar projects.

Retirements and Cancellations

• The latest release recorded 575 MW power plant retirements and over 110 MW project cancellations.
• Retirements included three solar plants, notably a project in Illinois. This plant, which was proposed by Cypress Creek Renewables in May 2024, was canceled without any construction. This cancellation is noteworthy because the project was initially highly ranked in our models due to the historical success rate of Cypress Creek Renewables.

The only ghost plants added this month were small solar projects mainly in the Northeast.

Vulcan’s Differentiating Ground-Truth Intelligence

Vulcan’s satellite-based construction monitoring continues to provide ground-truth context that precedes official regulatory status changes:

• Early Construction Signals: Our latest weekly satellite update shows numerous sites where land clearing is actively underway, despite the projects still being listed in the EIA status as "regulatory approval pending." This is a key example of how Vulcan delivers actionable intelligence ahead of the market.

69071 Bison Generation Station, Natural Gas, Williams County ND

EIA Status: (L) Regulatory approvals pending. Not under construction

759 MW expected Feb. 2029, 759 MW expected Mar. 2030

Land Cleared: 8/24/2025, Vulcan Earliest Online: 12/29/2027,

Vulcan Latest Online: 8/21/2029

69077 Lone Star Power Station, Natural Gas, San Jacinto County TX

EIA Status: (L) Regulatory approvals pending. Not under construction

467.3 MW expected Jul. 2028

Land Cleared: 8/19/2025, Vulcan Earliest Online: 12/29/2027,

Vulcan Latest Online: 8/21/2029

A major Amazon Data Center in Indiana, consisting of nine units, showed land clearing activity for the final unit. The other five units have been under construction since April of last year, and Vulcan's construction status tracking provides unit-by-unit progress that is essential for accurate load modeling. 

3581469 New Carlisle Data Center Campus, St. Joseph County IN

9 Units, 617 MW expected Jul. 31, 2026

DC08 First Structures: 9/19/2025, Vulcan Earliest Online: 7/3/2026

DC09 Land Clear: 9/19/2025, Vulcan Earliest Online: 9/8/2026* (structures expected soon)