The EIA-860M released its January report last week, adding 13.7 GW of planned capacity. This includes 3.4 GW scheduled for 2025 and 3.2 GW for 2026. Texas saw the largest state addition at 3.9 GW, followed by Georgia at 2.4 GW. While the rate of new build additions is decreasing, it remains relatively high compared to previous report updates.
A significant portion of the newly added projects are classified as "not under construction," making them prime candidates for monitoring by Vulcan. Even projects listed as "under construction," particularly those below 50% completion, warrant close monitoring to calculate earliest online dates and validate the EIA's status.
Project cancellations totaled approximately 400 MW. These projects were all ranked below the 50% completion threshold, indicating a higher risk of cancellation. Additionally, 750 MW of capacity was retired last month, with the largest retirement being a 108 MW combined cycle plant in Texas.
This update also revealed two "ghost plants," projects listed as operational despite potential never appearing as under construction in previous reports. Notably, the 150 MW Peacock Energy Project solar plant in Texas showed an online operation date of November 2024.
This week, we have incorporated the latest plant updates from the EIA-860M. Our analysis has identified several projects that are currently under construction. Clients can utilize individual plant/generator IDs to access each project's earliest potential online date, as well as our estimated online dates based on both conservative and recent trend outlooks.
The value of Vulcan UC Power continues to be evident as the EIA-860M consistently updates its project outlook. Power modeling results can be significantly impacted by the accurate representation of project online dates. Vulcan UC Power is designed to minimize uncertainty, allowing you to focus on other critical inputs within your power model.
