Haynesville
New TILs
Wellpad 460389, containing two wells owned by SWN, flowback operation in progress.
Since our last update we have expanded coverage in the Haynesville to include SWN. Between CHK and SWN we believe only a single TIL operation has occurred (see above). The SWN TIL, which is currently in progress on two wells that completed fracking 1/27, represents a nearly 60 day TIL lag, this is more than double the average TIL lag of 25 days we have seen with SWN in the past.
SWN
Through a combination of satellite images and on site visits from private investigators we believe SWN has four wells in their Not Yet TILd (NYT) inventory. This does not include the TIL in progress mentioned above.
SWN has reduced to just one frac crew in the region.
CHK
We have not observed any TIL activity on any CHK wellpads in the Haynesville since our last report. In addition to satellite monitoring we have made additional visits using private investigators to these pads and are becoming more confident in our ability to determine status from on-site observations. We now believe that wellpad 462050 is in fact flowing and was TILd in late January. Our initial assessment of this pad’s status was mistaken, but all other pads remain unchanged. CHKs NYT Haynesville inventory is 8 wells.
While CHK guided for one frac crew in the Haynesville and one in the NorthEast in their recent Q4’23 earnings presentation, they are as of the date of this report running no crews in the Haynesville.
Screenshot of CHK Q4'23 earnings presentation showing frac crew guidance.
NorthEast Update
We have found NorthEast wellpads to be far less friendly to visitors than their southern counterparts. PIs dispatched to SWN, CHK and EQT wells in the NorthEast received none of the southern hospitality of their Louisiana coworkers and were instead met with locked gates, no trespassing signs and in several cases even guards. We will always follow the law when collecting intelligence and so our PIs are under strict instructions not to enter pads with any restriction.
No trespassing sign, locked gate, guard shack.
This setback delays, but does not stop our TIL project in the NorthEast. We can still make an accurate TIL inventory but will need to rely on other sources of intelligence for each wellpad’s beginning status. In an absolute worst case scenario we can continue monitoring via satellite until publicly reported state data catches up to the beginning of our satellite observations.
We are preparing a report for the NorthEast which will describe what we currently know and dont know about these wells.
Summary
So far the data is telling us what we already know. Haynesville operators are exercising unprecedented discipline resulting in lower than expected production. Should that change Hyperion customers will be the first to know.
Our goal remains total coverage of all TIL operations in every relevant region. Once complete, Hyperion users will track TIL crews in the same way they currently track rigs and frac crews and will monitor NYT inventories the same way they currently monitor DUCs. On our way to this goal we will keep you updated with TIL reports covering increasingly larger areas.
