As discussed previously, SynMax is developing a new TIL monitoring dataset. Our intention is to give customers ground truth regarding:
- The number of wells completed but Not Yet TILd (NYT)
- Real time reporting of TIL jobs
We believe this new dataset will drastically improve our ability to predict near-term trends in production for regions where operators are opting to strategically delay turning wells in line.
The Challenges
Detection
TIL crews are much smaller than frac crews. Identifying them is not possible with the same medium resolution imagery that we use for frac crews and drilling rigs. For TIL tracking we have switched to much higher resolution satellites. Thankfully with our accurate fracking data we don’t need to take nearly as many pictures as we do when looking for fracs, we only need to image well pads once we detect a frac crew leaving.
Starting Point
There is no current state of TILs to work off of. Using only satellite images, even high resolution ones, we don’t know if a TIL has occurred yet and we just missed it prior to starting regular satellite coverage. We need a starting ground truth dataset. For this we have hired local private investigators to visit subject wellpads which we have observed fracking in the last three months and tell us whether the wells are producing.
Process Assumptions
When we talk about a ‘TIL’ crew we are really talking about a flow back crew. Equipment and personnel that flow water, proppant and sand out of the well borehole so that the well can start producing. We do not believe that operators would flow wells back without also producing them for fear of damaging the reservoir. This is supported by CHKs statement on it taking 30 days to bring their TILs back. If all that was needed was the turning of a valve, we don’t think you would need 30 days. We have however heard multiple theories on this from petroleum engineers. Determining the validity of this assumption will come naturally from the data we collect over the course of this project.
Starting Small
Eventually we want total daily coverage of every TIL in the Haynesville and the NorthEast. This lofty goal requires experience recognizing TIL crews, automation for determining sites to image, automation for submitting tasking orders and automation for processing the results. We are building all that now but don’t want to wait before getting early results on the most important wellpads. For this first report, we have manually processed data for all CHK potential TIL wells in the Haynesville. We will also release reports for SWN and EQT in the Haynesville and NorthEast.
CHK Haynesville Well Status
We believe CHK has 10 Haynesville wells in a NYT/ready to TIL state. It appears they began building up their NYT inventory in January. Each well likely represents ~20k mmcf/d of potential IP.
Of particular interest is wellpad 474297 which when visited by our investigators was undergoing a coiled tubing operation. High resolution satellite images from the following day show what may be the beginnings of a flow back job. We will continue to monitor for any potentially upcoming TIL.
Going Forward
Expect to receive a similar analysis on Haynesville SWN TILs in the next day or two. We are also awaiting NorthEastern TIL data as we expand our capacity to capture these events. In the coming month we hope to have sufficient regular coverage established for a more automated delivery of real-time TIL data. Our ultimate goal is to feed highly accurate TIL data into our Short Term Haynesville and NorthEast models, allowing customers to anticipate upcoming changes in daily production.
