The 1-15-day weather forecasts for January 17th have gotten slightly warmer compared to January 16th. However, overall production freeze-offs have come in higher than expected, mainly from Haynesville and Oklahoma. Natural gas production freeze-offs as a result are revised slightly higher from yesterday. While actual Northeast production freeze-offs are still coming in quite a bit lower than forecasted, Haynesville and Oklahoma production freeze-offs are coming in substantially higher than expected. As a result, we have lowered our Northeast production freeze-off estimate and increased our Haynesville and Oklahoma production freeze-off estimate for the balance of January-2024. Total Lower 48 natural gas production freeze-offs are now estimated to be 56.2 Bcf compared to 46.1 Bcf for yesterday.
The table below shows the actualized production freeze-offs by sub-region. Northeast production freeze-offs have been coming in significantly lower than expected. Haynesville and Oklahoma production freeze-offs have been coming in significantly higher than expected.
Crude oil production freeze-offs are unchanged from yesterday.
