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Europe’s LNG Regasification Market Update – 2025

 
 

Europe’s LNG Regasification Market Update – 2025

Building upon our previous analysis of China's regasification market, where we validated the status of projects under construction—many of which faced significant delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic—this week's report shifts the focus to European regasification projects. Leveraging insights from last week's report and utilizing detailed satellite imagery from SynMax Vulcan, we analyzed projects currently under construction in Europe, a region profoundly reshaped by policy-driven initiatives impacting its energy supply mix.

Over the past three years, Europe's energy strategy has been heavily influenced by the imperative to phase out Russian pipeline gas, a direct consequence of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In response to the war, Europe adopted stringent energy security policies, prompting substantial and rapid investments in building and expanding new regasification capacities.


According to SynMax Leviaton analysis, Europe's LNG regasification capacity is projected to reach 293 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2028, positioning it as one of the world's largest LNG importing regions. In comparison, China is expected to reach 246.9 mtpa, with Japan following at 217 mtpa.

 

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Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s regasification capacity has grown from 202 mtpa to 255.3 mtpa, averaging an annual increase of approximately 16 mtpa over the past four years. This expansion includes key projects such as Belgium’s Zeebrugge Expansion 3, which adds 1.3 mtpa without additional storage tanks, and Poland’s Swinoujscie Expansion, which included an additional storage tank. Furthermore, Gate LNG’s storage tank expansion contributes an additional 2.9 mtpa, and the UK's Grain LNG Phase 4, set to come online next year—as confirmed by Vulcan satellite imagery—will add another 3.8 mtpa along with a new storage tank.

 

As of 2025, the countries with the highest regasification capacities are:

  • Spain: 49 mtpa

  • United Kingdom: 36 mtpa

  • Turkey: 34.1 mtpa

  • France: 30.4 mtpa

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Germany stands out with the most significant capacity buildout, set to add 20.65 mtpa, followed by the UK with 14.8 mtpa.

 

Germany's Strategic Response

 

Germany, having been the most affected by the reduction in Russian pipeline imports post-Nord Stream incident, responded swiftly by chartering Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) to boost LNG imports. This strategy facilitated the integration of more LNG into its energy mix. In December 2022, DET commissioned Wilhelmshaven 1, the country’s first FSRU, and subsequently added Brunsbüttel FSRU, Stade FSRU and Mukran FSRU terminal. Wilhelmshaven 2 - which is set to come online in 2025, will add a regasification capacity of up to 3.6 mtpa per year.

 

However, challenges have emerged. The Mukran FSRU terminal, which began operations in September 2024, faced setbacks when Deutsche ReGas terminated its charter contract for the FSRU Energos Power in February 2025, citing pricing issues. This termination resulted in a loss of 5.2 mtpa in regasification capacity. The FSRU is now headed to Egypt as it has entered into a sub-chartered agreement with EGAS.

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In January 2025, Germany experienced its second FSRU departure when the 174,000-cbm Transgas Force, chartered for the Stade terminal, left the country following a contractual dispute between Deutsche Energy Terminal (DET) and Hanseatic Energy Hub (HEH). The Transgas Force is currently located near Skagen, Denmark. Combined with the earlier termination of the Energos Power FSRU charter at the Mukran terminal in February 2025—citing pricing disputes and underutilization —Germany has seen a reduction of approximately 10.7 mtpa in its regasification capacity.

 

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This loss in capacity is partially offset by three regasification projects underway in Germany: the Wilhelmshaven 2 FSRU, currently nearing commissioning; and the Stade onshore and Brunsbüttel onshore terminals, both expected to come online in 2026.

 

FORECAST MODEL PERFORMANCE REPORT

Analysis of our recent forecast model, combined with insights from our previous European LNG report published on May 9, 2025, concluded that Europe may require an average of 31 additional cargoes monthly over the next seven months to achieve storage filling targets (83% EU-wide, with Germany specifically targeting 70% by December 1, 2025).

 

According to Leviaton’s latest one-month predictive model, between May 28 and June 28, 2025, over 207 LNG vessels are expected to offload at European regasification terminals (including Turkey, excluding Norway). This represents an increase of 28 cargoes compared to the same period last year, which recorded 179 cargoes. Additionally, by the end of May 2025 specifically, forecasts indicate over 189 LNG cargoes will be offloaded at these terminals, with at least 23 cargoes expected within the next four days alone. This projection marks an increase of 26 cargoes compared to May 2024's total of 163 but still falls short of the peak observed in May 2023 during Europe's gas crisis, when cargoes reached 268.

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Last month in April 2025, Europe imported over 182 cargoes, 9 cargoes more than the same period last year.  

 

As of May 28, 2025, Europe's current gas storage levels stand at 47%, compared to 69% at the same time last year. If the current forecast of an average year-on-year increase of 31 additional LNG cargoes per month remains consistent for the next 7 months, Europe is well-positioned to successfully meet its storage requirements and replace the lost Russian gas ahead of this winter. Nonetheless, Europe's main challenge remains its competitiveness in securing LNG supplies against Asian markets, rather than limitations posed by infrastructure at regasification terminals.

 

Vulcan & Leviaton clients can access the LNG-specific project data through Vulcan, either by downloading the dataset or via API or Snowflake for project-specific information.