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Analysis of Europe’s LNG Cargo Requirements for 2025

 
 

Analysis of Europe’s LNG Cargo Requirements for 2025

 

Background and Current Scenario

 

As Europe navigates the aftermath of reduced Russian gas supplies, its reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) has increased significantly. With the exception of limited flows via the TurkStream pipeline, which primarily serves south-eastern and central European countries, Russian pipeline gas has been entirely removed from Europe's energy mix this year. Europe's pipeline imports from Russia plummeted from approximately 153 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021—before Russia's invasion of Ukraine—to just 33 bcm in the past year. Over the last three years, Europe has increasingly turned towards LNG, including the construction of offshore regasification terminals and the expansion of storage facilities, to bridge this substantial supply gap. This shift has accelerated LNG import volumes and intensified the search for reliable alternative suppliers for both the short and long term.

 

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Rising Dependence on US LNG

 

US LNG exports to Europe have surged notably following Europe's shift away from Russian gas. Between August 2024 and February 2025, approximately 18 US LNG vessels were redirected to Europe from Asia mid-voyage. LNG cargo deliveries from the US totaled 297 vessels between January and April 2024. During the corresponding period in 2025, this number increased to 378, representing a 27% year-on-year growth.

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EU Storage Replenishment and Regulatory Adjustments

 

On May 8, 2025, the EU Parliament voted (425 in favor, 106 against, and 43 abstentions) to lower gas storage filling requirements from 90% to 83% by December 1, 2025, aiming to ease high spot prices. Germany had proactively reduced its storage target from 90% to 70% in late April. As of May 8, 2025, EU gas storage facilities were filled to 42% of their total capacity, significantly lower than the 64% recorded at the same time last year. Current national storage levels vary notably, with Germany at 36%, France at 46%, and the Netherlands trailing at just 27%.

 

Equinor’s CEO estimates that Europe might require around 350 additional LNG cargoes in 2025 to offset the shortfall from reduced Russian pipeline supplies. Other analysts, however, suggest a more conservative figure of approximately 250 additional cargoes.

Comparative LNG Import Trends

 

Europe's total LNG imports from August 2024 to February 2025 reached 1,874 cargoes, an increase from 1,659 cargoes during the same period in the prior year—marking a 13% increase. Conversely, Russian LNG imports have declined significantly. Between January and April 2025, Europe imported only 90 Russian LNG cargoes compared to 129 cargoes during the same period in 2024—a 30% decrease. This drop is also directly linked to the EU's ban on Russian terminals Portovaya and Vysotsk at the start of 2025, leaving Yamal in the Arctic as the sole Russian LNG source. The EU Parliament has also recently proposed a complete ban on Russian spot LNG cargoes by the end of 2025 and on all long-term contracts by the end of 2027.

 

Cargoes from other global regions (including West Africa, the Middle East, and European & Latin American reloads) increased modestly from 910 vessels in January–April 2024 to 954 in 2025, reflecting a 5% growth.

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Modeling Europe's Additional LNG Cargo Needs

 

To accurately gauge Europe's additional LNG cargo requirements, weather forecasts and consumption patterns remain the key variable to consider. Current meteorological forecasts predict a warmer-than-average spring, potentially reducing energy consumption for heating. In theory, this should enable increased injection of imported gas into underground storage facilities until the end of November 2025. 

 

Assuming an average cargo size of 0.07 million tonnes of LNG, which converts to approximately 0.09 bcm per cargo, replacing around 25 bcm of lost pipeline gas would require about 278 additional cargoes. Spread evenly over seven months (May through November), Europe would need roughly 31 extra cargoes each month.

Historically, from May to November, Europe's average monthly imports over the past three years are:

  • 2024: 173 cargoes per month (Total:1213)
  • 2023: 235 cargoes per month (Total: 1646)
  • 2022: 226 cargoes per month (Total: 1584)

Averaging around 211 cargoes monthly across these years demonstrates that adding 31 monthly cargoes (totaling around 242 per month) represents a significant but achievable increase to meet Europe's gas storage targets. 

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Leviaton clients can easily monitor this on a daily basis to track the EU's schedule. Should deliveries in the next few months not consistently exceed typical levels, the futures curve will likely present a risk premium in later months, unless the limits are further decreased. Furthermore, if storage limits entering winter are at or below 83%, significant price spikes could occur during the winter, as LNG deliverability is not comparable to domestic storage capacity. Leviaton's ship tracking and forecasting will provide you with an early indication of these trends.