Weekly Storage and S/D Brief - week ending 7/24/2026

Week Ending July 24, 2026

SynMax Analytics | Published July 29, 2026

Headline

SynMax models a +33 Bcf injection for the week ending July 24, roughly in line with the prior week's EIA-reported +32 Bcf build, as a sharp mid-week cooldown in the East and Midwest offset continued South Central heat. Power burn eased -1.0 Bcf/d week-over-week to 49.9 Bcf/d as national population-weighted CDDs fell from 13.0 to 11.9, while declining Canadian pipeline imports (+0.91 Bcf/d less supply) and rising Mexico exports (+0.33 Bcf/d) partially offset the demand reduction. If confirmed, storage would stand at approximately 3,089 Bcf — just 18 Bcf below last year's 3,107 Bcf and +204 Bcf (+7.1%) above the 5-year average.

Review the full analysis on the dashboard.

Storage Summary

Working gas in underground storage stood at 3,056 Bcf for the week ending July 17 (EIA-reported), with the SynMax model projecting 3,089 Bcf for the week ending July 24 (+33 Bcf modeled injection). The year-over-year deficit continues to narrow — storage is now just ~18 Bcf below last year's ~3,107 Bcf, down from a 19 Bcf deficit the prior week. Storage remains well above the 5-year average of approximately 2,871 Bcf (+7.1%).

Model accuracy: Over the last 4 reported weeks, the SynMax model has averaged a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.0 Bcf with a slight negative bias of -2.4 Bcf (model tends to undershoot actual injections).

Primary Driver: Power Burn Eases on Mid-Week Cooldown

Electric power sector gas consumption fell -1.01 Bcf/d week-over-week to 49.86 Bcf/d — retreating from the prior week's 50.87 Bcf/d, which had been elevated by the Pacific heat wave discussed in last week's report.

Weather Context

Average daily national population-weighted CDDs fell to 11.9 for the week (from 13.0 the prior week), driven by a dramatic mid-week temperature plunge:

• July 22-23 saw national CDDs collapse to 11.8 and 9.9 respectively — the coolest days since early July — as a cold front swept through the East and Midwest
• East region CDDs fell from a weekly average of 13.0 (WE 7/17) to 10.4 (WE 7/24), a -2.6 CDD decline
• Midwest saw the most dramatic cooling, with CDDs plunging from 11.9 to just 7.4 — a -4.5 CDD decline that effectively eliminated cooling demand for several days (CDDs hit 2.4 on July 23)
• South Central bucked the trend, with CDDs rising from 15.3 to 19.9, a +4.6 CDD increase as heat returned to Texas and the Gulf Coast
• Mountain CDDs also increased modestly from 15.9 to 16.2

The net effect was a nationally cooler week, but the regional divergence is important: South Central's rising heat partially offset the East/Midwest cooldown, limiting the overall power burn decline to ~1 Bcf/d rather than the ~2-3 Bcf/d that the national CDD drop alone would suggest.

Weather-Adjusted Power Burn

The weather-adjusted power burn residual — the gap between actual gas consumption for power and what CDDs alone would predict — remained at approximately +0.31 Bcf/d above the regression expectation for CONUS. This is down from the +2.9 Bcf/d residual seen the prior week (which was driven by the Pacific renewable generation decline discussed in the WE 7/17 report), as the renewable shortfall has partially corrected.

Secondary Factors

LNG Feedgas: Modest Increase to 17.9 Bcf/d

Total LNG feedgas averaged 17.92 Bcf/d for the week, up +0.16 Bcf/d from the prior week's 17.76 Bcf/d. Facility-level highlights:

• Sabine Pass remained the largest facility at 4.50 Bcf/d (+0.18 WoW)
• Corpus Christi increased to 3.20 Bcf/d (+0.12 WoW)
• Freeport partially recovered from its one day full outage, averaging 1.41 Bcf/d (+0.26 WoW) but still well below its ~2.1 Bcf/d full-rate capacity
• Plaquemines eased slightly to 3.75 Bcf/d (-0.22 WoW)
• Golden Pass continued its Stage 3 commissioning ramp at 0.33 Bcf/d, steady week-over-week

The Freeport recovery added ~1.8 Bcf of incremental LNG demand over the week versus the prior week's depressed levels, partially offsetting the power burn decline.

Canadian Imports: Significant Supply Decline

Canadian pipeline imports fell to -8.37 Bcf/d from -9.28 Bcf/d the prior week — a reduction of 0.91 Bcf/d in supply. This was the largest single bullish factor in the weekly balance, removing ~6.4 Bcf of net supply over the week. The decline likely reflects seasonal maintenance on TCPL and Western Canadian pipelines.

Mexico Exports: Higher

Pipeline exports to Mexico increased +0.33 Bcf/d to 7.22 Bcf/d, consistent with continued South Central heat driving Mexican power demand. This added ~2.3 Bcf of incremental demand.

Production: Flat

Dry gas production averaged 110.53 Bcf/d for the week, essentially flat (-0.07 Bcf/d) versus the prior week's 110.60 Bcf/d. Production continues to run approximately +3.1 Bcf/d above year-ago levels (107.4 Bcf/d in July 2025), providing a steady supply-side tailwind.

Residential/Commercial & Industrial

Res/Com demand edged up slightly to 8.55 Bcf/d (+0.13 WoW), while Industrial demand was essentially flat at 22.03 Bcf/d (+0.11 WoW). Neither sector was a meaningful driver of the weekly balance.

Supply & Demand Factor Changes (WoW)

Storage Trajectory

Outlook: Week Ending July 31

Early data for the week ending July 31 (4 of 7 days available) points to a larger injection of approximately +39 Bcf, driven by:

• Heat wave building: CDDs surged from 11.7 on July 25 to 14.1 on July 27, with South Central CDDs hitting 22.0 — the highest reading since early July. If this trend continues through week-end, power burn should exceed 50 Bcf/d again.
• Production uptick: Daily production has risen to 111.8-112.1 Bcf/d in the July 25-27 window, the highest levels of the summer.
• LNG feedgas steady: Total feedgas has remained in the 18.0-18.4 Bcf/d range, with Freeport continuing its gradual recovery.

Range estimate: +35-45 Bcf. The base case of ~+39 Bcf assumes the weekend heat carries into the final three days (Mon-Wed). If the heat wave intensifies further, the injection could narrow toward the low end; if it breaks early, injections could widen toward +45 Bcf.

Methodology & Data Sources

Storage change modeled as: Total Dry Gas Production (SUM across sub-regions) minus Total Net Demand (SUM of all demand types including Balancing Factor, for CONUS baseline scenarios), multiplied by 7 days. The Balancing Factor (-2.32 Bcf/d this week) represents the residual between independently modeled supply and demand components and is essential for calibrating the storage injection estimate against EIA actuals.

Data sources: SynMax daily production model (hdl.daily_production), SynMax demand model (hdl.gas_demand, baseline scenarios), SynMax LNG feedgas model (hdl.lng_feed_gas), EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, NOAA GFS/HRRR weather data (via local PostgreSQL).

Disclaimer: This report is produced by SynMax Analytics for informational purposes only. Modeled figures are estimates and may differ from official EIA releases. Past model accuracy does not guarantee future performance.

New Dataset Release: US Demand

SynMax has released a new US Gas Demand Dataset for our Hyperion Clients.  It consists of a daily demand estimate, broken out by EIA gas storage region and by demand component.

It covers the four weather-driven end-use sectors (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Power), built as an ensemble of pipeline flow data and weather-driven modeling, calibrated to EIA's monthly totals. It also includes LNG feedgas at all US liquefaction and regasification terminals, pipeline trade flows with Mexico and Canada, and supporting components like lease/plant fuel and pipeline/distribution use — giving a complete, regionally resolved daily picture of the lower-48 gas balance.

The data is currently out on query_datalinks and on Agents and will be rolled out to the SynMax frontend and the traditional API over the coming weeks. See here for overview and access methods, and here for full methodology and details.

As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.