As of 7:00 AM CDT Monday, July 20, 2026 — Tropical Depression Two is located at 28.6°N, 85.6°W, approximately 110 miles south of Panama City, FL and 210 miles southeast of Mobile, AL. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. The system is moving northwest at 3 mph.
Track Update: The NHC track has shifted northward compared to earlier forecasts. The depression is expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Bertha later today (Mon Jul 20), reaching peak intensity of 50 mph by Tuesday-Wednesday. The storm will move slowly northwestward then turn west-northwest along the northern Gulf Coast, approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River by Wednesday and continuing westward through Louisiana and toward southeast Texas through Friday. The system is expected to be inland and weakening after 60 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch: Ochlockonee River, FL to the MS/AL border. Additional watches likely for MS, LA, and TX in the next 24-48 hours.
Production Impact (GoA Offshore Only): Natural gas production at risk ranges from 0.25 Bcf/d (best case, 13%) to 1.04 Bcf/d (worst case, 53%) of Gulf of America output. Crude oil at risk ranges from 233K bbl/d (11%) to 1.06M bbl/d (49%). 28 offshore platforms lie in the direct path with 19 more in the precautionary zone.
Demand Impact: Gulf Coast natural gas demand reduction estimated at -0.30 Bcf/d (best) to -2.60 Bcf/d (worst), with LNG feed gas the largest exposure. In the worst case, demand destruction (-2.60 Bcf/d) significantly exceeds supply loss (-1.04 Bcf/d), which is net bearish for natural gas prices.
Read the full analysis on the dashboard.
SynMax has released a new US Gas Demand Dataset for our Hyperion Clients. It consists of a daily demand estimate, broken out by EIA gas storage region and by demand component.
It covers the four weather-driven end-use sectors (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Power), built as an ensemble of pipeline flow data and weather-driven modeling, calibrated to EIA's monthly totals. It also includes LNG feedgas at all US liquefaction and regasification terminals, pipeline trade flows with Mexico and Canada, and supporting components like lease/plant fuel and pipeline/distribution use — giving a complete, regionally resolved daily picture of the lower-48 gas balance.
The data is currently out on query_datalinks and on Agents and will be rolled out to the SynMax frontend and the traditional API over the coming weeks. See here for overview and access methods, and here for full methodology and details.
As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.