The Latest GOA Storm Update

Tropical Storm Bertha is located 100 mi SSW of Panama City, FL and 175 mi SE of Mobile, AL. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph with a central pressure of 997 mb — the storm has strengthened significantly from the 35-mph tropical depression seen yesterday. Moving NW at 5 mph. Air Force reconnaissance confirms continued deepening. TS-force winds extend 80 miles from center, primarily on the southern side due to 25+ kt NE vertical wind shear.

Bertha will peak at 60 mph at 12h (this afternoon), then gradually weaken as NE shear increases. Track continues NW toward AL/MS coast tonight, turns W along the coast through Wednesday-Thursday, moving inland over LA by 48h (Wed AM). Briefly back over water at 60h before making landfall near the TX coast at 72h. Post-tropical by 96h (Fri) inland near central TX. Dissipated by 120h. NHC notes Bertha may degenerate into a trough before 72h due to hostile shear environment.

PRODUCTION IMPACT (GoA OFFSHORE ONLY)
20 platforms in direct path, 24 precautionary, 6 minimal risk. Natural gas: 0.19 – 0.87 Bcf/d at risk (10% – 44% of GoA production). Crude oil: 192K – 911K bbl/d at risk (9% – 42% of GoA production). Best case assumes 40% shutin of direct-path platforms (named TS, but asymmetric structure and quick passage). Worst case assumes 85% direct-path + 45% precautionary shutins (TS Warning area, mandatory evac protocols).

DEMAND IMPACT
Best case: -0.40 Bcf/d total demand reduction. Base case: -1.35 Bcf/d. Worst case: -3.00 Bcf/d. LNG feed gas is the largest risk vector (-0.20 to -1.40 Bcf/d) as the track threatens vessel operations at Sabine Pass, Cameron, and Plaquemines. Net market impact: In worst case, demand destruction (-3.00 Bcf/d) far exceeds supply loss (-0.87 Bcf/d) = net bearish for nat gas prices.

Read the full analysis on the dashboard.

New Dataset Release: US Demand

SynMax has released a new US Gas Demand Dataset for our Hyperion Clients.  It consists of a daily demand estimate, broken out by EIA gas storage region and by demand component.

It covers the four weather-driven end-use sectors (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Power), built as an ensemble of pipeline flow data and weather-driven modeling, calibrated to EIA's monthly totals. It also includes LNG feedgas at all US liquefaction and regasification terminals, pipeline trade flows with Mexico and Canada, and supporting components like lease/plant fuel and pipeline/distribution use — giving a complete, regionally resolved daily picture of the lower-48 gas balance.

The data is currently out on query_datalinks and on Agents and will be rolled out to the SynMax frontend and the traditional API over the coming weeks. See here for overview and access methods, and here for full methodology and details.

As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.