This month's update is a quiet one. We have refreshed our regressions against the latest...
Short-Term Production Forecast Differences to Daily Production
The latest STF revision reveals a significant upward revision in Appalachia driven by updated PA state data. The Oct 2025 production decline — previously our last good data point — has been revealed as a widespread production outage that fully reversed in November 2025, not a structural decline.
National STF: 114.35 Bcf/d (Jul 2026) — up from 112.92 last update, reflecting PA data revision and continued growth.
Daily Production: 109.93 Bcf/d (30-day avg) — national gap now 4.43 Bcf/d (vs 2.92 previously).
PA Outage Discovery: Combined NE PA + SW PA dipped 1.28 Bcf/d in Oct 2025, then snapped back +1.28 Bcf/d in Nov — classic outage/recovery pattern, not decline.
Appalachia STF now 37.65 Bcf/d — the largest regional STF capacity, reflecting post-outage recovery trajectory extending through 2026.
Permian gap persists: STF 28.26 vs Daily 26.37 = 1.89 Bcf/d gap, still driven by DTILing ahead of Hugh Brinson and Blackcomb pipelines.
Read the full analysis on the dashboard.
New Dataset Release: US Demand
SynMax has released a new US Gas Demand Dataset for our Hyperion Clients. It consists of a daily demand estimate, broken out by EIA gas storage region and by demand component.
It covers the four weather-driven end-use sectors (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Power), built as an ensemble of pipeline flow data and weather-driven modeling, calibrated to EIA's monthly totals. It also includes LNG feedgas at all US liquefaction and regasification terminals, pipeline trade flows with Mexico and Canada, and supporting components like lease/plant fuel and pipeline/distribution use — giving a complete, regionally resolved daily picture of the lower-48 gas balance.
The data is currently out on query_datalinks and on Agents and will be rolled out to the SynMax frontend and the traditional API over the coming weeks. See here for overview and access methods, and here for full methodology and details.
As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.
