September Natural Gas Production Report

As our long-term forecast update from the Hyperion webinar on August 29 suggested, natural gas production in the Lower 48, as measured by pipeline production data, fell in September 2025 compared to August 2025.

Lower 48 production averaged 105.82 Bcf/d for September month-to-date, a drop of 0.76 Bcf/d from the August average of 106.58 Bcf/d. This decline is in line with seasonal trends, as September typically sees an increase in pipeline maintenance, lower natural gas demand, and the implementation of storage restrictions by Northeast pipeline operators. Additionally, Cove Point LNG's annual maintenance contributes to this expected dip. This year has been no exception to that pattern.

Regional Analysis

Northeast The Northeast is the region most affected by lower natural gas demand and pipeline-related issues. Production, as measured by pipeline data, fell 0.3 Bcf/d from August to September. Cove Point LNG began its typical annual maintenance on September 20, leading to an immediate drop in regional production. Additionally, the force majeure outage at the Athens compressor station on the TETCO pipeline is still in effect but is expected to come back online by October 3.

The Hyperion Agent flagged a production anomaly today, demonstrating its capability in identifying unusual data patterns.

However, as an automated system, the agent does not account for changes in underlying reporting technology or human input. We are still investigating. Interconnect flow on Equitrans is showing normal variation. Equitrans pipeline hasn’t posted any maintenance or force majeure event that would’ve caused the large drop in production flows.

Haynesville 

Natural gas production in the Haynesville basin fell 0.55 Bcf/d from August to September. The Gulf Run pipeline has undergone maintenance that has affected up to 200 MMcf/d of production. Other maintenance events on intrastate pipelines, which are not publicly reported, may also be contributing to the decline.

Permian 

In contrast to other regions, natural gas production in the Permian basin rose by 0.33 Bcf/d in September compared to August. However, this growth did not come without complications. Maintenance on the Gulf Coast Express and El Paso pipelines in September caused next-day cash prices at Waha to turn negative around September 11.

Conclusion

In conclusion, natural gas production in September 2025 is down compared to August 2025, aligning with the normal seasonal pattern driven by lower demand, pipeline maintenance, and Cove Point LNG's typical annual maintenance.