Lower 48 natural gas production as measured by the pipeline scrape data has dropped by 1-2 Bcf/d...
Since the beginning of spring 2025, Lower 48 natural gas production has been in steady decline, currently running about 1.7 Bcf/d below the mid-April peak. In this article, we break down the drivers of this decline, focusing on regional pipeline maintenance impacts, and share our view on what these maintenances signal for the recovery of natural gas production.
Northeast
Much of the decline has occurred in Pennsylvania, specifically the Southwest Pennsylvania subregion where production has fallen up to 1 Bcf/d and is currently 0.6 Bcf/d below its April high. Northeast Pennsylvania natural gas production does not contribute to this decline and has remained flat over the period.
Southwest Pennsylvania
Much of the Southwest Pennsylvania production decline is likely attributable to various OFOs and maintenance events occurring daily on the Equitrans pipeline beginning around April 23rd. Additional maintenance on the Nexus pipeline in late April is another contributor to the decline. In the charts below we break out the details of these events and discuss their expected return to service dates.
MarkWest Liberty Bluestone Gas Processing Plant Maintenance
According to a recent bulletin from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection the MarkWest Processing Plant is undergoing maintenance which was originally expected to end 5/9. Pipeline flow data shows that this maintenance event may already be near completion as recent noms show a potential return to service.
Likewise, the Wahlville metering station also in Butler PA shows the same pattern, with flows declining to zero on 4/25/25 and appearing to begin their return to service in the most recent pipeline nominations.
Equitrans Pipeline Maintenances
Equitrans has been issuing a large number of system wide OFOs beginning 4/24. We expect these OFOs represent ~0.175 Bcf/d of impact on SW PA production. The impact of these maintenances is visible on the Jupiter gathering system in SW PA which collects gas for EQT wells in the region. It is difficult to say how long these maintenances will last.
West Texas
Production in West Texas has declined by around 0.8 Bcf/d since the late April high. Various maintenances on the Permian Highway and El Paso pipelines during the second half of April and early May are the likely reasons for this decline. With limited visibility into West - TX pipeline flows due to the larger number of intrastate pipelines we can confirm flow reductions on the El Paso pipeline but cannot see the direct impact of Permian Highway.
Upcoming Production Maintenances
Maintenance season is not yet over with multiple upcoming maintenances scheduled to start as early as this week. Below is a summary of major maintenances we believe may impact production in the coming weeks and months.
Conclusion
The Southwest Pennsylvania and West Texas subregions encompass the majority of the recent decline in natural gas production. Most of this decline can be explained by ongoing maintenance events. Natural gas production is likely to remain subdued until maintenance season ends sometime in late June. We believe that once the maintenance season is over, natural gas production is likely to return to the April 18th 106.1 Bcf/d peak.
We will continue to watch for additional pipeline maintenance events and send you our analysis.
