Demand model recalibrations

With the latest release of the EIA's monthly demand data through June 2026, we have updated our demand models accordingly. Modeled demand for the month of June was largely aligned with with the posted EIA numbers, with the total demand realizing within 0.75 Bcf/d of the official EIA monthly data.

This month's recalibration resulted in minor changes to modeled demand numbers from July 1 onwards for the Electric Power sector (+0.22 Bcf/d) and the Industrial sector (-0.13 Bcf/d). All other demand sectors were effectively unchanged.

Daily Production Update

This month's production update is a modest one. We have refreshed our regressions against the latest state-reported data, and our existing model continues to track well across almost every subregion. These changes will be live the morning of 9 September 26.

L48 Changes

At the L48 level, the effect is modest. Our production estimate has been revised up by an average of 0.2 Bcf/d since April 2026, and the current-day estimate has increased by 0.13 Bcf/d. This change comes almost entirely from West Virginia, where updated state data has allowed us to improve our production model considerably. 

The increase in production is primarily driven by the Permian Basin, where the Gulf Coast Express expansion and Hugh Brinson Phase 1 volumes have all come online beginning in June. The Gulf Coast Express expansion filled to capacity fairly quickly, while Hugh Brinson Phase 1 took some time to become fully operational. Blackcomb commissioning volumes are also theoretically flowing, but we don't have any positive indication of that. As those volumes ramp, our daily production continues to converge with the production capacity the STF has been estimating.

Notable Subregion Changes

West Virginia

West Virgina updated their non horizontal wells for 2025 which allowed us to improve our production model for the region. As a result production has been revised up by an average of 0.2 Bcf/d since April 2026.

Appendix: Updated Alignment Dates

When fitting our daily production estimates, we consider two key dates for each subregion:

• State alignment cutoff: the date up to which we align our daily production estimates to state-reported production.  On this day and prior the daily production model monthly averages are guaranteed to match state data.
• Last fitted date (or "last good" date): the date up to which we regress against the state data. The last fitted date can sometimes extend beyond the state alignment cutoff — this occurs when we are modeling reporting delays and therefore fitting against our own version of the state data (as discussed here).

The current alignment dates by subregion are shown below: