Recent NG Production Drop Analysis 08-12-2026
Kern River GT — Fillmore Compressor FM (Since 8/07)
Unit 2 mechanical failure at Fillmore compressor station. Force majeure declared with no restoration timeline. Impacts Rockies takeaway capacity. Kern River has been running at reduced capacity, constraining Utah/Wyoming production egress.
El Paso / Transwestern — Daily Critical CCs (Since 8/08)
El Paso Natural Gas and Transwestern posting daily critical capacity constraint notices since 8/08. Constraining Permian basin takeaway. These are recurring operational constraints during high summer demand periods. 5+ notices per day across both pipelines limiting scheduled flows out of West TX and Permian-NM.
TETCO Force Majeure — Ohio (Since 8/11)
Texas Eastern Transmission declared force majeure affecting Ohio operations. UGI Appalachia Dry Ridge (Greene Co, PA) saw TSQ drop from 152 MMBtu/d to 87 MMBtu/d (−43%). Multiple Appalachia receipt points showing reduced nominations.
Haynesville Price-Responsive Decline
Haynesville-LA production down 0.33 Bcf/d (−3.0%) and Haynesville-TX down 0.08 Bcf/d. This basin has near-100% rerouting capability, so pipeline outages are not the driver. The decline appears price-responsive — operators throttling back as Henry Hub spot prices soften during summer shoulder season.
Columbia Gas (CGT) — Multi-Event Appalachia
CGT has overlapping force majeures, capacity constraints, and maintenance across WV, SW PA, OH, and NE PA. Combined impact spread across multiple sub-regions. Appalachia production partially offset by rerouting to Rover, Equitrans, and Dominion interconnects (65% rerouting factor applied).
Market & Seasonal Context
68% of the 2.00 Bcf/d decline (1.35 Bcf/d) is attributed to market, weather, and normal operational variation — not pipeline outages. Summer heat reduces compressor efficiency, weekend cycling in Appalachia reduces flows, and Permian daily production naturally fluctuates ±0.5 Bcf/d. Only 0.65 Bcf/d is directly tied to pipeline outage impacts.
Read the full analysis on the dashboard.
New Dataset Release: US Demand
SynMax has released a new US Gas Demand Dataset for our Hyperion Clients. It consists of a daily demand estimate, broken out by EIA gas storage region and by demand component.
It covers the four weather-driven end-use sectors (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Power), built as an ensemble of pipeline flow data and weather-driven modeling, calibrated to EIA's monthly totals. It also includes LNG feedgas at all US liquefaction and regasification terminals, pipeline trade flows with Mexico and Canada, and supporting components like lease/plant fuel and pipeline/distribution use — giving a complete, regionally resolved daily picture of the lower-48 gas balance.
The data is currently out on query_datalinks and on Agents and will be rolled out to the SynMax frontend and the traditional API over the coming weeks. See here for overview and access methods, and here for full methodology and details.
As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.