Northeast DFlow (Deferred Flowing) Analysis

Note: The Northeast DFLow Analysis only uses the TIL analysis for EQT and Expand Energy (which is ~27% of total Northeast natural gas production) and does not include the TIL Report - Expanded list.

Northeast natural gas production has fallen ~1 Bcf/d since March 6, 2026, even as 6 TIL pads (49 wells, 0.98 Bcf/d dry IPR) were brought online — a pattern consistent with Deferred Flowing (DFlow), where producers complete wells but choke them back to capture higher winter prices under the steeper TETCO M3 2026 contango. After backing out Northeast base decline (~0.6 Bcf/d/month, allocated by subregion baseline share), the implied DFlow gap is ~1.0 Bcf/d for the Northeast, concentrated in SW PA (+0.87) and NE PA (+0.22). KPIs and charts below break this down by date and subregion, the TIL table lists each pad driving the IPR adds, and the methodology block at the bottom states the assumptions and caveats. Use the dropdown in the time-series section to drill into any subregion.

Read the full analysis on the dashboard.

As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.