Based on the 1–15-day weather forecasts in the Lower 48 US, there are no expected production freeze-offs for natural gas and oil for late December 2024 and into the first week of January 2025. Weather forecast highs for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania are well above 32 degrees Fahrenheit until January 10th. The forecast highs for Midland, Texas are way above 32 degrees Fahrenheit from now until January 10th. The same goes for Shreveport, Louisiana, and Oklahoma City. Even Bismarck, North Dakota will likely not see any production freeze-offs in oil and natural gas. The natural gas futures markets have gone up substantially over the last 20 calendar days due to expectations of colder than normal weather forecasts in January 2025.
However, this has been based on 16–30-day weather forecasts, which are even more suspect than 11-15-day weather forecasts.
Hyperion Update - Natural Gas Frac Crews
Hyperion tracks frac crews located on natural gas dominant wells. With the recent increase in front month natural gas futures prices, Lower 48 natural gas based frac crews have seen a significant increase in activity.
Most of the natural gas based frac crew increase is occurring in the Permian basin as the fixed price for January 2025 is expected to be over $3.00 / MMBtu at Waha. Additionally, calendar year 2025 pricing is more than $2.00 / MMBtu higher than what Waha natural gas spot prices averaged in 2024.
