-1.png?width=788&height=440&name=image%20(1)-1.png)
Natural Gas Using the latest 12Z GFS Operational and 12Z Euro Ensemble weather forecasts going out...
|
SynMax Research: It’s wintertime in the Lower 48 US which means it’s the time for natural gas production freeze-offs with cold enough weather. Hyperion AI Agents can now be utilized to estimate natural gas production freeze-offs. Natural gas production freeze-offs may be occurring in the Northeast Pennsylvania subregion with below freezing temperatures in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Question: “are there natural gas production freeze-offs occurring in NEPA in the first 10 days of December given temperature high and low data in Williamsport, PA?”
Answer: “ ## Analysis Summary: Natural Gas Freeze-Offs in NE PA (Dec 1-10, 2025) **YES, there is evidence of freeze-off impacts on NE PA natural gas production.** ### Key Findings: **Production Decline:** - Production dropped from **12.25 BCF/d** on December 1 to **11.74 BCF/d** on December 10 - Total decline: **-0.51 BCF/d (-4.2%)** - This is a significant production loss for a 10-day period **Temperature Conditions:** - Minimum temperatures ranged from **8°F to 31°F** (all below or near freezing) - Coldest period: **December 5-6** with lows of **8-10°F** - Multiple days with sustained below-freezing temperatures **Correlation Evidence:** - **Positive correlation (0.44-0.55)** between temperature and production - Lower temperatures are associated with lower production - consistent with freeze-off behavior - The coldest days (Dec 5-6) coincided with some of the lowest production levels **Production Drops Identified:** - **Dec 2**: -0.17 BCF/d (-1.4%) as temps dropped to 23°F - **Dec 3**: -0.14 BCF/d (-1.2%) with 21°F overnight - **Dec 9**: -0.14 BCF/d (-1.1%) following cold snap ### Conclusion: The combination of sustained below-freezing temperatures (especially the extreme cold on Dec 5-6 with lows of 8°F) and a steady 4.2% production decline strongly suggests **freeze-off conditions are impacting NE PA natural gas production**. The pattern shows cumulative freeze-off effects rather than immediate recovery, which is typical when wellhead equipment, gathering lines, and separation facilities experience freezing conditions.”
The Hyperion AI Agent can also be used to track historical natural gas production freeze-offs across the lower 48 production subregions. The following is one such query: Question: “look at all winter periods for the months of November through February from 01/01/2021 to today and see if there have been natural gas production freeze-offs in the natural gas producing subregions from sub-freezing temperatures. Use Pittsburgh, PA for the SWPA subregion, use Midland, TX for West TX and Permian NM subregions, use Williamsport, PA for the NEPA subregion, use Shreveport, LA for the Haynesville LA and Haynesville TX subregions, use Houston, TX for the South TX subregion, use Oklahoma City for the Oklahoma subregion, use Denver, CO for the San Juan Colorado, and Colorado without San Juan subregions, use Cheyenne, WY for the Wyoming subregion. Show correlations to temperatures when freeze-off production drops occurred.”
Answer: “## Summary I've completed a comprehensive analysis of natural gas production freeze-offs during winter periods (November-February) from 2021 to present. Here are the key findings: ### **Major Freeze Events Identified:**
- 6 regions affected, -11 BCF/d total impact - West TX experienced -38% single-day drop (Feb 15) - Temperatures: Midland dropped to 5-15°F, Oklahoma City to -16°F
- 4-5 regions affected, -5 BCF/d impact - Oklahoma City: -8°F, widespread impacts across OK, Permian, Colorado, SW PA
### **Regional Vulnerability Rankings:** **Highest Risk:** - **Permian-NM**: 3.4% freeze-off frequency (most vulnerable) - **Oklahoma**: 2.4% frequency - **West TX**: 1.7% frequency, but highest total impact (-11.82 BCF) - **Haynesville**: 1.5% average frequency **Most Resilient:** - **Appalachia (NE PA, SW PA)**: <0.5% freeze-off frequency - Better winterization and cold-weather infrastructure ### **Temperature Correlation:** **Critical Thresholds:** - **20°F**: Freeze-off risk begins - **10°F**: High probability of >5% production drops - **<0°F**: Near-certain freeze-offs, often >10% drops **Pattern**: Production drops occur 0-24 hours after temperature drops, with recovery taking 2-5 days after temperatures rise above freezing. ### **Deliverables:** ✅ **4 Datasets** saved for further analysis ✅ **3 Interactive Charts** showing temperature-production correlations and regional vulnerability ✅ Identified **85 days** with significant production drops (>5%) ✅ Quantified **~45 BCF/d** cumulative freeze-off impact across all events The analysis clearly demonstrates that southern producing regions (TX, OK, LA) are most vulnerable to freeze-offs due to less winterization infrastructure, while northern regions like Appalachia show greater resilience.”
Summary The summary and analysis reports from the Hyperion AI Agent make intuitive sense, showing that Texas (TX), Louisiana (LA), and Oklahoma (OK) are especially vulnerable to production freeze-offs. In contrast, North and Northeastern states are much more resilient due to the superior winterization of pipelines and wellheads. Further analysis can be integrated into the Hyperion AI Agent to include historical power outage data by sub-region. This would allow the model to factor in grid vulnerability, providing an analysis of production freeze-offs that goes beyond temperature-only data. Agent Performance AssessmentThe Agent is clearly operating at the level of a very well data-versed first-year analyst. Its ability to rapidly process and gather all the necessary information gives it a distinct advantage over a human analyst. The first question took only 30 seconds. The second question took 7 minutes to answer but it was 12 regions and multiple years. |
