Iran Exported More, but No Record

Recent reporting from the Wall Street Journal has claimed that Iran's exports surged to 3.78 mmbbl/d (WSJ) "last week" as of the publication date of 24 Feb.  Bloomberg specified 15 to 20 Feb at 3.35 mmbbl/d, but called that "far beyond Tehran’s usual daily rate." Synmax's Dark Oil can confirm Bloomberg's volumes (we have 3.32 mbbl/d for that period), but short of record levels, and well-within levels recently seen.

How Do We Count Oil from Iran?

Unlike other providers who use AIS, which can be spoofed, or just not used, Synmax's Dark Oil leverages the power of our Maritime Domain Awareness product, Theia, to visually monitor every loading terminal in Iran.  (We even have proprietary methods to monitor them when there is cloud cover, of which there has been little recently.)  We estimate volume by measuring vessel size, and record loadings on the day of departure.

This is our data for the last 4 months - 

Figure 1: Weekly Loadings from All Terminals in Iran

 Figure 2: Monthly Loadings from All Terminals in Iran 

  Figure 3: Daily Loadings from All Terminals in Iran  

In addition, we looked at a rolling 6-day average to see how that period Bloomberg cited compares to the last year of loadings, and though it's top 5 in the last year, it's certainly not unprecedented - January actually saw a higher, more-sustained surge at 3.85 mmbbl/d for 9 days rather than 6.  In addition, loadings reverted to lower levels immediately after, unlike in Dec/Jan.

Bottom Line

Though we did see the regime loading in advance of anticipated military actions, it was just another busy week.  We have observed the tanks filling at Bandar e-Jask, the "new" port outside of the Persian Gulf, though there haven't been any loadings since December.  The storage tanks were emptied then and have now filled, possibly indicating imminent exports.

Data Source: Synmax Hyperion Dark Oil, with data as of 26 Feb.  

As usual, reach out to support@synmax.com with any questions.