Antero Resources (AR) For Antero Resources, first quarter 2025 total production averaged right at...
Earnings Highlights AR, CNX, COP, & NFG
Antero Resources (AR)
AR reaffirmed FY 2026 production guidance at 4.1 Bcfe/d (NG 2.8 Bcf/d, liquids 213 MBbl/d) in the Q1 2026 EPS — unchanged from the Q4 2025 EPS. The Q1 2026 quarter delivered a record 3.9 Bcfe/d (+13% YoY).
Efficiency drivers such as longer 18,000 ft laterals (from the HG acquisition), 89% NRI, water-handling optimization, D&C design changes, and dry-gas/liquids portfolio rebalance underpin the cost reductions.
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CNX Resources (CNX)
Q1 2026 production came in at 1.693 Bcfe/d — squarely inside the FY26 range — and capital efficiency stepped up materially. CNX delivered FY 2025 production of 1.723 Bcfe/d — modestly above the high end of the prior 1.712 Bcfe/d guide — and reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of 1.658–1.699 Bcfe/d (mid 1.678) in both the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 EPS releases, implying a deliberate ~2.6% YoY maintenance-of-production posture.
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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Q1 2026 L48 natural gas production printed 2.067 Bcf/d. COP does not publish explicit L48 natural gas guidance, but applying the company-disclosed ~4% L48 underlying YoY growth implies an FY 2026 Synmax forecast of ~2.18 Bcf/d. The company plans on adding a Permian rig in H2 2026. Strong efficiency gains continue into 2026 (D&C +15% YoY, 90% wells at 2-mi+ laterals, refracs scaling, Marathon synergies $1B+ run-rate).
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National Fuel Gas (NFG)
National Fuel LOWERED its FY2026 Seneca production guidance by ~3.4% from the prior reporting quarter, driven by Winter Storm Fern weather-induced flowback delays and underperformance of four older-design Lower Utica wells on a Tioga County 6-well pad.
FY2025 actual production was a record ~1.167 Bcf/d; the revised FY26 mid still implies +1.5% YoY growth versus a steeper +5% under the original guide. NFG cut its NYMEX assumption from $3.75 to $3.00, lowering FY26 adj. EPS guide $7.60-$8.10 → $7.45-$7.75 (-$0.10 mid).
Critically, Gen 4 Lower Utica and new Upper Utica wells PERFORMED AS EXPECTED (one new well flowed at 40 MMcf/d vs 25-30 MMcf/d on older designs) — the underperformance is isolated to legacy completion designs, validating the new tech that underpins the long-term mid-single-digit growth outlook (REAFFIRMED) and the ~420 Upper Utica drilling locations added across the two reports.
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As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.
