APEX to Provide Haynesville Incremental Production

Haynesville natural gas production is headed for a conservative 0.7 Bcf/d increase from August 2026 to December 2026. The Long-Term Forecast (LTF) is estimated to be 17.36 Bcf/d by December 2026 based on public producer guidance, however, private producer APEX has gone from 4 frac crews in Q2 2026 to 10 crews by the end of August, representing about 40% of all Haynesville frac activity. Based on Hyperion’s Short-Term Forecast (STF) estimate, APEX is expected to grow production from 1.82 Bcf/d (Aug-2026) to 2.87 Bcf/d (Dec-2026) - a 58% increase. Note that two-month out STF values rarely decline, other than for minor recalibration issues.

Meanwhile, public producer Expand Energy (EXE) holds roughly flat on the STF since the STF doesn’t forecast well completions beyond 45 days from now. The original STF model showed a steeper Expand Energy decline (-16%) driven by base well declines, but this has been adjusted to reflect EXE's stated plans for increasing production into Q4 2026. Other operators show minimal movement (±2-5%), making APEX the dominant growth story in the basin heading into winter 2026. Even with conservative STF December-2026 production estimates for the rest of the Haynesville producers, APEX is causing Haynesville production risk to skew to the upside by December 2026 as compared to the public producer guidance-based LTF. 

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