🛰️ Vulcan Intelligence Alert: Translating Data Center Load into Natural Gas Demand (Clone)

SynMax Research:

The "So What" Question: Bridging Physical Load and Gas Fundamentals

The biggest ask from our clients—who are deeply engaged in natural gas fundamentals through Hyperion’s daily wellpad monitoring—is clear: What does the massive Data Center build-out mean for my gas positions?

While the obvious impact is on power prices and grid congestion, the true strategic risk lies in the gas market. We are now solving this problem by integrating our satellite-verified infrastructure tracking directly into a new incremental gas demand model.

The Bottom Line Up Front: Our latest incremental gas demand model indicates an additional 2 Bcf/d of net incremental gas demand in Q1 2026 stemming from the balance of new load and generation projects. This demand will tighten market conditions compared to recent quarters.

A Dynamic, Data-Driven Gas Demand Model

We will be offering clients this dynamic, high-level incremental natural gas demand model, which allows for quarterly projections through the next 8 quarter - currently end of 2027.

1. The Core Data: Net MWh Change

The foundation of our model is the net change in MWh resulting from two increments: Data Center load coming online minus New Generation capacity coming online.

• Generation Verification: Vulcan's ability to track new generation projects is already proven. Our online MWh projections are consistently 3x better than the EIA 860M outlooks when forecasted six months out.

• Data Center Build-Out: We apply the same physical monitoring principles to data centers. Our build forecast is intentionally more conservative than many market outlooks, as we can point directly to construction start dates and build timelines verified by satellite. We have identified numerous projects that will not meet 2026 online deadlines without heroic construction efforts.

2. Modeling Key Assumptions (User-Accessible Inputs)

To convert MWh changes into Bcf/d gas demand, our model uses several adjustable inputs, all rooted in Vulcan data and industry benchmarks:

3. Dispatch Adjustment: The Gas/Coal Balance

The final critical adjustment is modeling the MWh change in dispatch from non-gas resources (e.g., coal retirements).

• Retirement Tracking: Clients can easily see data on retiring plants from our database. For example, over 5 GW of coal plants were slated to retire in 2025 (mostly late in the year) according to the EIA 860M.

• MWh Impact: Using a table from Snowflake, we can show that retiring coal plants generated over 9 Million MWh in Q1 of last year—energy that will no longer be available.

• Weather Normalization: We also account for weather effects. For instance, knowing last winter was colder than normal, we applied a 7 Million MWh adjustment for reduced dispatch MWh, factoring in a move toward normal winter weather. This reduction would also cover an underutilized existing non-gas plant e.g. improved transmission.

Conclusion: A Tighter Q1 Market

By integrating forecasted Data Center projects, new Generation capacity, underlying load growth, specific heat rates, and dispatch adjustments, we conclude that approximately 2 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas demand for Q1 2026 as result of 24 Million MWh net increment energy will be needed from the projects Vulcan monitors.

When this net incremental power demand is combined with the ongoing, progressing demand from LNG liquefaction facilities (which we also monitor), we see the potential for significantly tighter Q1 market conditions relative to what has been observed over the past few quarters.

Next Steps: Clients can currently see these projections by quarter in the Dashboard to the end of 2027. As Vulcan Data Center and Power Projects are modified, these outlooks are updated. We will soon launch an Incremental Natural Gas Demand Studio allowing clients to modify the inputs above and recompute their own custom outlooks.

📞 Take Action: Gain Predictive Advantage

For energy analysts and trading groups not yet leveraging Vulcan's satellite-verified intelligence, this unprecedented structural load growth demands a new level of forecasting accuracy.

Don't rely on announced timelines—rely on verified construction.

To understand how Vulcan can immediately integrate verified physical data into your fundamental models and gain access to this critical gas demand analysis, we invite you to take the next step:

Schedule a demo and request your free two-week trial of the Vulcan platform today.

Contact our Lead Researcher: David Bellman at dbellman@synmax.com.