Vulcan UC continues to expand, adding another 3 GW. We are also enhancing our insights by adding an additional date column. The two date columns we now provide are the land cleared date and the first structure date. We have retroactively added these dates for many projects to benefit our clients. These dates are important because the first land clearing provides an initial construction start date. However, many projects have varying timelines for the next stage, which is the first structure. By adding the first structure date when it appears, we can refine our earliest online date projection based on this date rather than the land cleared date.
As an example, a new plant added last week was Plant ID 67976, Cattleman Solar II, Milam County, TX, 200 MW, EIA Planned Operation 12/2024 – images below. Land clearing actually occurred in June 2023, but the first structure didn't appear until December 26th, 2023. Based on our fastest timeline, it should be operational by now. Our longest timeline puts it into next December so the EIA planned operation date is still achievable. The EIA lists it as 50% complete. We are working on the ability to provide you with a percentage completion estimate based on image analysis, which will be available in the future for Vulcan clients.
10/27/2024 – Vulcan Confirmed
12/26/23 – First Structures (Panels)
6/27/2023 – First Land Clear
On the Vulcan Coal front, we continue to see increasing inventory levels. Overall inventory is higher than last year, but the number of individual plants exceeding 90% capacity is lower than last year, indicating high inventories but not a widespread extreme situation. Must-run coal plants are triggered by conditions at individual plants, not by overall high inventory levels. Clients can log in and examine specific plants with high inventory levels to simulate potential must-run scenarios and assess the impact on power prices, congestion, and fuel burn.
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