For this week's Vulcan update, we evaluated the queue of projects in the EIA plant databases for 2025. As of now, the EIA indicates over 50 GW of planned projects to come online in 2025. Using the EIA-supplied coordinates, Vulcan Under Construction (UC) covers over 28.5 GW. Images are captured weekly and compared to determine if construction activity is occurring. Out of the 28.5 GW, only 4.4 GW has been confirmed and identified as under construction.
Utilizing a construction timetable shown below, we recalculated the earliest possible online dates for these plants. Based on this, the shift of plants beyond 2025 is over 24 GW.
Some of this shift can be attributed to supply chain issues. Another potential issue is the accuracy of the EIA GPS coordinates, which we are currently investigating on a case-by-case basis. Approximately 50% of the shift is located in ERCOT, with MISO being the next largest region representing 20% of the shift. The map below shows the state declines for 2025 new builds.
This week we confirmed two plants not under construction even though EIA noted they are under construction.
EIA Status (U) Under construction, less than or equal to 50 percent complete – Vulcan Status Not Under Construction
1) Crescent Valley Solar, Crescent Valley, Lander County NV, Capacity 149 MW
Source: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/030524-nevada-approves-nv-energy-gas-fired-projects-after-solar-plus-storage-delays (March 5, 2024 NV Energy denied request to purchase the project from Invenergy LLC)
7/25/2024
2) Yum Yum Solar LLC, Sommerville, Fayette TN, Capacity 147 MW
Source: https://invenergy.com/projects/our-projects (Project listed as contracted on Invenergy website)
https://www.tva.com/Environment/Environmental-Stewardship/Environmental-Reviews/Yum-Yum-Solar-Project (Project passed TVA environmental review 2019)
7/14/2024
On the Vulcan Coal platform, we continue to see a drawdown of coal very similar to last year. Last week bullish numbers came on the backs of a big drop in renewables. This week renewables particularly wind has a big jump. ERCOT dark spreads are entering a territory where coal units start turning off, but due to the potential summer spikes they will likely continue to operate.
Invest in Your Success: Subscribe to Vulcan Today
