Vulcan Insights: Coal Generation and Inventories: A Balancing Act

Coal generation is increasing, but so are inventories.

The total number of coal plants exceeding 90% capacity could surpass last year's peak, potentially triggering "must-run" scenarios. However, current dark spreads indicate running coal units is already profitable.

This week, a significant rise in total generation reflects a substantial increase in load. Balancing some of this demand growth is a rise in nuclear, solar, and wind generation. While weekly coal production remains steady, it could lead to inventory concerns in the coming weeks. Consequently, the natural gas share of fossil fuel generation will likely dip below last year's ratio.

The Warrick coal plant in Indiana has reached an all-time high inventory level, according to both Vulcan data and EIA historical records.