As we delve deeper into the EIA's renewable build data and status, certain discrepancies arise that underscore the necessity of Vulcan UC. We have analyzed every monthly generator inventory table from the EIA since 2015. Initially, we believed we could use this data to track construction timelines by technology and region, assuming changes in status would accurately reflect progress. However, we discovered that the status updates are not as frequent or accurate as anticipated.
Below is a list of solar builds (125 MW+) classified as operational this year. We then examined the status of each plant over time.
The list includes plants from Hecate Energy, listed as early as April 2019, and others that mysteriously appeared online in 2024 without any historical status. For instance, the Ganado Solar Plant (ID 67284) was listed as operational in the February report with an operating date of October 2023. Through satellite analysis, we determined the plant likely began construction in March 2022 and was completed by December 2022, taking less than nine months. According to EIA's operating date, Ganado remained idle for ten months.
67284 Ganado Solar, Ganado, Borden County Texas, 150.5 MW, ~9 months for all panels
12/25/2022
11/12/2022
9/14/2022
6/27/2022
3/25/2022
Vulcan UC would be unable to capture plants like this without prior knowledge of their location. We are investigating whether using ISO data could provide more accurate tracking than the EIA.
Another anomaly was observed with a 200 MW solar plant in New Mexico, OE_ESC plant ID 66888. In the EIA 860-M, this plant was listed as "(L) Regulatory approvals pending. Not under construction" in August 2023. It remained in this status until May 2024, when it was listed as Under Construction >50%. In June 2024, it was reported as operational – an amazing 1 month construction! Satellite imagery indicates construction began July 1st 2023 and ended 1/28/2024 within a remarkable 7 months. Yet, the EIA listed the plant as operational in June 2024, implying 5 months of idle time.
66888 OE_ESCL, Prewitt, McKinley County New Mexico, 200 MW, ~7 months for all panels
1/28/2024
12/10/2023
10/28/2023
9/16/2023
7/1/2023
Finally, we examined the 690 MW Gemini Solar plant in Nevada (plant ID 63352). The EIA indicated an online date of March 2024. It was listed as under construction since November 2019. Our historical analysis revealed construction began June 12th 2022 and ended October 7th 2023 – 16 months of construction.
63352 Gemini Solar, Crystal, Clark County Nevada, 690 MW, ~16 months for all panels
10/7/2023 12/9/2022
6/12/2022
These inconsistencies create inefficiencies in the market. Vulcan UC aims to reduce these uncertainties. We are currently analyzing historical build times for other generation types, similar to our analysis of solar plants. Upon completion, we will offer a Vulcan Optimistic Online Year and Month to compare with EIA's planned online year and month. Additionally, we will provide an average Online Year and Month. These columns will be updated weekly as we adjust the estimated completion dates for sites without visible construction.
This week, we are adding 80 new battery plants to Vulcan UC. We have concluded that we can monitor any construction requiring more than 0.5 acres of land. Many of these large battery installations require multiple acres. In the near future, we will provide a form for clients to submit projects for monitoring. We look forward to our clients' continued feedback as we develop the Vulcan platform.
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