Record Gas Burn Percentage

A record for gas percentage (77.5%) of the gas & coal generation last week was seen on the Vulcan dashboard and below.  With gas prices dropping below $2/mmbtu a high gas percentage was expected.   The higher end should have been expected because of the Vulcan outputs.  The record level can be indicated by combining both the counts of coal plants above 90% are low and the overall inventory dipping below last years level due to the winter issues in the Midwest and East.

The connection of the counts of plants above 90% and overall inventory can be used to bias your outlook of coal to gas switching.  The logic goes:  If coal counts above 90% are low and overall inventory level are not so high then the gas % would likely be on the higher end.  If coal counts are high and overall inventory levels are high then the gas % would likely be lower than normal.  If the charts are mixed then a normal outcome is likely.   An improvement on this logic would be to add a dark/spark spread view - which we plan to add soon.  In addition, regional stock levels will also be available for Vulcan clients using the similar method used for total US stocks.

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