A table of data is worthless unless you can transform it into meaningful insights. By analyzing the entire EIA-860M dataset, we can observe the evolution of EIA data and identify errors within it.
While Vulcan UC does encounter timing issues with the EIA-860M, it initially relies on this database for project identification. We allow clients to add projects for monitoring beyond the scope of the EIA-860M. A major concern with the EIA-860M is the possibility of projects being identified well after they've gone online, compared to their initial proposed timeline.
To address this issue, we've added a column called "First Seen" to the EIA-860M. This column enables us to quantify the number of plants that were identified late in the process. We define "late" as any project that appeared in the database less than six months before its online date. Projects that were first seen after their operation date are considered significantly late.
According to our analysis, 28.2 GW of capacity falls into the category of "significantly late," while 57 GW is within the "late" category. To put these numbers into perspective, the total online operational GW in the database is 1278 GW. Therefore, the overall error rates for plants being listed late are only 2.2% and 4.4% respectively. However, when examining the data on a year-to-year basis, we observe an error rate of around 20%. To maintain an accurate macro view, we must be cautious about removing or delaying too many projects beyond this 20% threshold.
We will incorporate these findings as we continue to develop our Vulcan New Build viewpoint. Currently, clients can download our weekly UC file or access it through Snowflake. There is a column labeled "EIA Proposed Online Date," which can be directly compared with "Vulcan Earliest Plus 7." This comparison can highlight proposed plants that are unlikely to meet their online dates (dates earlier than Vulcan Earliest Plus 7). Additionally, we have a column called "Construction Start" that you can use to create your own timeline by adding your estimated construction days based on the start date. We will also be adding a "Structure Start Date" to provide a more precise online date, as land clearing and actual construction can vary significantly.
The trajectory appears very similar to last year, suggesting that uneconomic dispatch may occur in November.
We have updated these 4 plants with Construction Start dates. The highlighted plant of the week is the Trumbull Energy Center, a 350 MW Ohio natural gas-fired combined cycle plant. In our original under-construction status, we dated the land clearing as 3/7/23. However, the first structure wasn't in place until 7/24/23. The EIA-indicated online date is 1/2026. Given that it's a brownfield development, we believe the online date should be significantly earlier unless there are supply chain or transmission constraints that haven't been accounted for.
66918 Trumbull Energy Center, Trumbull County Ohio, Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle 350 MW, Planned Online 1/2026
10/6/2024 – Confirmed Construction
7/23/2023 – New Structures Construction Start
3/7/2023 – Land Clearing Construction Start
