With the data center boom driving a significant portion of expected load growth—up to 70%—many energy analysts are also focused on the associated gas demand. This makes understanding data center growth a key factor in accurate forecasting.
However, a major challenge is the high uncertainty surrounding these projects. While many are announced, a large percentage (20-70%) will likely never be built. This is where Vulcan's unique value comes in. By using weekly satellite imagery, our platform tracks the physical progress of projects from the ground up, identifying key milestones like land clearing and initial construction. This allows us to separate speculative projects from those with real momentum, providing a far more realistic understanding of future load growth.
Below is Vulcan statuses validated and confirmed by weekly satellite imaging:
For example, we've found that many proposed large-scale projects slated for the near future are still in a "None" status, meaning no physical construction has begun. Given that projects over 100 MW can take 18-24 months to build, any without ground broken now are highly unlikely to meet their 2026 deadlines. This critical insight directly impacts your load and gas demand forecasting.
This critical insight directly impacts your load forecasting. Let's use 2026 as an example:
Assuming this 17 GW connects to the grid and runs at an 85% capacity factor, it would add 127 TWh of demand. Based on last year's total U.S. demand of 4,086 TWh, this alone represents over a 3% load growth. If the economy is strong we are looking at 4.4% load growth (3%/70%). While some projects may use on-site gas generation, this approach gives you a solid, data-backed approximation that is invaluable for forecasting total gas demand. Clients can perform the 2027 and beyond, adjusting the success rate over time. This analysis can also be conducted by ISO or on a project-by-project basis.
This is the kind of accurate, forward-looking intelligence our platform provides. We also track LNG projects, which will be equally critical for understanding future U.S. gas demand. Subscribing to Vulcan will give you a clear, competitive edge.
To see how Vulcan can transform your forecasting, contact David Bellman at dbellman@synmax.com for a demo or to discuss the energy landscape.
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