For every energy project that sped up in June, 26.6 slipped.
If you plan capital, capacity, or offtake around in-service dates, that ratio is your problem: the schedules you rely on move the wrong way far more often than they move your way. This week's EIA 860M update shows record additions on the surface and a pipeline quietly sliding underneath. Here is what actually moved – and how to see it before the official data catches up.
Start with the additions. The June update showed an additional 8 GW of new projects, with solar leading the way at 3.8 GW, followed by batteries at 3.5 GW.
Over 6 GW came online in the month of June. For June, this is historic – the most capacity to come online in the month of June going back to 2015.
Over 1.1 GW of projects got cancelled, mainly solar and battery projects – most had a Vulcan ranking below 3, our confidence score for whether a project will actually get built (higher is more likely). The cancellations landed where our model already saw weak conviction. In addition, another 875 MW of retirements this month.
EIA 860M continues to improve by catching up on missed facilities in the database. This month, over 400 MW of operating units showed up, with over half being solar projects.
Progress, or the lack of it, can be visualized by mapping the various status changes. Using the Agent platform, I asked for this visualization and summary. This is the number to remember: delays are 26.6x more likely than accelerations – 293 projects pushed back versus just 11 pulled forward. Explore this month's movement yourself in the live dashboard:
https://agents.synmax.com/public/dashboard/27f2587b-1759-4777-b24f-a02b3dad3816
See it before it happens.
You already know the official schedule slips – you just can't always tell which projects, or by how much, until it is too late to act. A single missed in-service date can strand capital, mistime an offtake position, or leave a load without power. Vulcan turns satellite imagery and EIA data into an early, verifiable read on which energy projects are actually moving – and which are slipping. From datacenters and power plants to LNG facilities, Vulcan watches construction on the ground and predicts when projects will truly come online, so you are not betting on planned dates that delays outnumber 26.6x.
Getting started takes three steps:
Want this level of visibility on the projects that matter to you? Reach out to David Bellman, Vulcan Product Lead, at dbellman@synmax.com to sign up for Vulcan and start turning construction signals into a decision-ready edge.