SynMax Research:
On Tuesday, November 25, 2025, SynMax Vulcan conducted a second round of thermal drone imagery over Corpus Christi Stage 3, following our initial September 2025 survey. This analysis provides updated assessments of liquefaction train status across the seven-train expansion project.
Train 3: Flaring Activity Continues
Thermal imagery shows continued flaring activity at Train 3. Cheniere announced Train 3 achieved substantial completion in October 2025, though the company has not yet confirmed commercial operations. As noted in prior reporting, flaring alone does not confirm sustained feedgas flow or LNG production; the thermal evidence does not clearly distinguish commissioning flares from production flares. Nonetheless, active flaring indicates the train is receiving gas.
Road surface thermal signatures show finished asphalt surrounding Train 3 displaying elevated temperatures characteristic of cured pavement, consistent with the paved surfaces observed around operational Trains 1 and 2.
Train 4: Infrastructure Incomplete
Train 4 exhibits no flaring activity and displays cooler ground surfaces characteristic of unpaved terrain in contrast to the paved areas surrounding Trains 1- 3. Cheniere had earlier indicated Train 4 is expected to achieve substantial completion by year-end 2025 or early 2026. However, in their Q3 2025 earnings, they said, "Trains 4- 7 are scheduled to reach substantial completion by the end of 2026.”
Trains 1-2: Operational
Trains 1 and 2 achieved substantial completion in March and August 2025, respectively, and remain operational. Thermal signatures display elevated temperatures consistent with active liquefaction, with flaring activity and paved surroundings matching operational status.
Trains 5-7: Heavy Construction Phase
Thermal imagery of Trains 5 through 7 reveals active construction with visible cranes and equipment staging. Cheniere expects Trains 4-7 to reach substantial completion by the end of 2026. SynMax Vulcan will continue satellite monitoring to track construction progress on these trains.
Satellite Imagery Limitations
While SynMax Vulcan's satellite imagery confirms Train 3 is structurally complete and Train 4 is progressing, satellite-based observation has inherent limitations in detecting when a facility is truly energized. Thermal drone surveys provide supplementary ground-truth verification, though distinguishing between commissioning and production operations requires additional data sources.
Feedgas Flow Monitoring Challenges
Each Stage 3 liquefaction train maintains a nameplate capacity of approximately 1.49 MTPA (0.2 Bcf/d). Monitoring feedgas flows to determine Train 3 startup presents analytical challenges. Corpus Christi sources feedgas from intrastate pipeline systems, rendering flow variations at the facility level difficult to isolate. Intrastate pipeline deliveries aggregate multiple receipt and delivery points, obscuring train-specific consumption patterns.
SynMax Leviaton can effectively track vessel loading patterns and cargo forecasts to approximate intrastate feedgas flows, providing visibility into incremental production despite pipeline data limitations.
Thermal analysis confirms continued flaring activity at Train 3 following Cheniere's October 2025 substantial completion announcement. Train 4 remains in late-stage construction with unpaved surfaces and no flaring, contrasting with Trains 1–3. Based on historical commissioning timelines, incremental LNG export capacity from Train 3 is anticipated by December 2025. SynMax Vulcan and Leviaton will continue monitoring facility status and vessel loading activity to confirm production startup.
Thermal imaging captured November 25, 2025. This analysis represents observations from a single survey date.
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