Beyond the Build: SynMax Research Reveals the Next Grid Reliability Crisis is Plant Age

At SynMax Research, we cut through the noise using the immense satellite and market intelligence available on our platforms. This week, we used the Vulcan platform to dive deep into the EIA-860M database (available to clients via Snowflake and soon via API), identifying a systemic risk that transcends the current load growth narrative.

The power sector is currently fixated on the unprecedented demand from 168 GW+ of planned data center capacity (majority monitored by Vulcan and available to clients by unit project in association with IIR). The consensus is that new gas generation must be built to meet this demand.

However, our analysis reveals a critical second threat: The Retirement Cliff.

•  Historically, we’ve seen annual natural gas capacity additions top nearly 65 GW in a single year.
• Today, our data shows that the existing fleet of highly-depended-upon gas infrastructure is rapidly approaching its operational limits. The average age for CC (Combined Cycle) and CT (Combustion Turbine) plants is trending toward 40 years.
• In fact, early-boom natural gas units are already beginning to retire.

This data suggests that over the next five years, the industry won't just need to build capacity for new data centers—it will also need to replace a retiring gas fleet. This challenge will acutely test the resiliency of key markets like Texas (ERCOT) on their ability to build and maintain simultaneously. 

Clients can leverage the Vulcan platform to fuse this critical retirement data with our Data Center Construction Table and Power Under Construction Table. This allows them to see, by project and unit, precisely how generation shortages will likely unfold—giving them the competitive edge needed to manage risk and lock in opportunities.

Vulcan Under Construction Highlight

3653870 Harwood Polaris Forge 2 Data Center – Land Cleared

DC01 – 140 MW, IIR Planned Startup: 10/31/2026, IIR Unit Status: Planned, Vulcan Earliest Online: 9/27/2026

DC02 – 140 MW, IIR Planned Startup: 4/30/2027, IIR Unit Status: Planned