We are closely following a recent surge in Haynesville frac crew activity as over the last 30 days crews have grown from 17 to 25, a key level where the Haynesville tends to be in growth mode. As the recent growth in Permian-NM crews, and resulting production surge has shown us, mostly flat summer 23 gas production has set the stage for an easy return to growth. Long periods of flat production push up average well vintages keeping decline losses low. Our current production environment is requiring less new wells to replace the declines of old ones. Even a marginal increase in frac crews in regions like the Haynesville could have a meaningful impact.
From the arrival of a frac crew to new production hitting the pipe (TIL lag) the average is 45 days, this can be accelerated, or delayed depending on producer preferences. Pay close attention to upcoming releases of the short-term forecast. Should this trend materialize into something big we will probably call a client-only webinar to discuss it in detail.
