Analysis of U.S.-China Trade Dynamics and LNG Cargo Diversion

Written by Vivek Patil | Jul 15, 2025 6:09:26 PM

Analysis of U.S.-China Trade Dynamics and LNG Cargo Diversion

Key Takeaways:

Real-time Vessel Tracking and Destination Analysis: Leviaton provides precise, tracking of LNG vessels globally, enabling users to identify and anticipate changes in cargo destinations driven by geopolitical and economic factors, such as the U.S.-China trade war. This allows for proactive adjustments to trading strategies and supply chain planning.
Insight into Global LNG Trade Flows and Market Dynamics: Leviaton analyzes vessel movements in conjunction with market intelligence to provide a clear understanding of evolving global LNG trade patterns. This includes identifying shifts in import origins and destinations, and assessing the impact of events like tariff changes on established trade routes and arbitrage opportunities.
Quantification of Market Exposure and Risk Assessment: By providing data on historical trade volumes and tracking current vessel diversions, Leviaton allows users to quantify their exposure to specific trade routes and assess potential risks associated with geopolitical events and policy changes. This enables more informed risk management and strategic decision-making in the LNG market.

The escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China this year has resulted in significant reciprocal tariffs. Duties on U.S. imports into China have risen from an initial 15% to a current total of 125% as of today, April 21, 2025.

Amidst this substantial tariff increase, SynMax Leviaton has closely monitored the vessel 'Vivit Americas LNG' (IMO: 9864667), chartered by Vitol. Initially destined for Tianjin, China, according to the vessel's captain's destination log, its status was subsequently changed to 'FOR ORDERS' on April 21, 2025. Following this update, SynMax Leviaton anticipates that the vessel is now en route to Japan. The vessel loaded its cargo at Cove Point on April 5th and is currently navigating towards Asia via the Cape of Good Hope.

This change in destination can most likely be attributed to the high import costs imposed by China on U.S. LNG. Chinese traders have largely refrained from importing U.S. LNG this year. Data indicates that no vessel carrying U.S. LNG has arrived in China for over two months since January 2025. Consequently, several LNG vessels initially bound for China have been diverted to alternative markets, including Europe and other Asian destinations, as traders have capitalized on favorable arbitrage opportunities favoring Europe over Asia.

No major global trade flow disruption is anticipated, as SynMax Leviaton data indicates that U.S. LNG accounted for slightly over 6% of China’s total LNG imports in 2024. Given the ongoing trade tensions and elevated tariffs, China, the world’s largest LNG importer, may choose to resell U.S. LNG cargoes to buyers in other Asian or European markets, leveraging existing long-term contractual obligations.

SynMax Leviaton will continue to closely track the 'Vivit Americas LNG' vessel, as the captain may update or alter its destination in the coming days. The vessel is projected to reach Japan by mid-May 2025.

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