Weekly Storage and S/D Brief - week ending 8/7/2026

Headline

SynMax models a +32 Bcf injection for the week ending August 7, roughly in line with the prior week's EIA-reported +33 Bcf build. A late-week heat surge that drove national CDDs above 14 on August 7 pushed power burn higher in the East (+0.56 Bcf/d WoW) as a broad-based supply decline tightened the overall balance: dry gas production fell -0.85 Bcf/d to 111.16 Bcf/d and Canadian pipeline imports dropped -0.31 Bcf/d. Demand-side relief came from lower LNG feedgas (-0.41 Bcf/d) and power burn (-1.11 Bcf/d nationally), keeping the weekly surplus near the prior week's pace. If confirmed, storage would stand at approximately 3,149 Bcf, roughly 13 Bcf below last year's level and +200 Bcf (+6.9%) above the 5-year average.

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Model accuracy:  Over the last 5 reported weeks, the SynMax model has averaged a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.3 Bcf with a slight negative bias of -0.5 Bcf.

Primary Drivers: Supply-Side Tightening

The dominant feature of the week was a -1.16 Bcf/d decline in total gross supply to 119.64 Bcf/d. Dry gas production fell -0.85 Bcf/d to 111.16 Bcf/d from the prior week's summer-high of 112.01 Bcf/d. While still running approximately +3.3 Bcf/d above year-ago levels (107.91 Bcf/d), the week-over-week pullback removed approximately 6.0 Bcf of supply over the 7-day period versus the prior week. Daily production ranged from a low of 110.46 Bcf/d on Wednesday August 5 to a high of 112.15 Bcf/d on Friday August 7, with mid-week softness reflecting typical pipeline scheduling patterns.

Compounding the production decline, Canadian pipeline imports fell -0.31 Bcf/d to 8.48 Bcf/d (from 8.79 Bcf/d). On the export side, Canadian pipeline exports rose +0.46 Bcf/d to 3.05 Bcf/d (from 2.59 Bcf/d), further reducing net Canadian supply available to the domestic market. Net Canadian imports (imports minus exports) fell from 6.20 Bcf/d to 5.43 Bcf/d (-0.77 Bcf/d WoW).

On the demand side, consumption declined -1.31 Bcf/d to 115.05 Bcf/d, more than offsetting the supply decline. Power burn fell -1.11 Bcf/d as early-week coolness across the Midwest (-0.71 Bcf/d), South Central (-0.61 Bcf/d), and Mountain (-0.41 Bcf/d) regions more than offset late-week East Coast heat (+0.56 Bcf/d). LNG feedgas dropped -0.41 Bcf/d, and Res/Com eased -0.38 Bcf/d on seasonal base-load decline. The net result was a slightly wider daily surplus of 4.59 Bcf/d (vs 4.44 Bcf/d the prior week), translating to a modeled injection of approximately +32 Bcf.

Weather Context

National population-weighted CDDs averaged 12.6 for the week (essentially flat versus 12.6 the prior week), but the intra-week pattern was notable:

• August 1-4 saw moderate heat with CDDs ranging from 11.6 to 12.4 — cooler than the prior week's mid-week heat pulse (which peaked at 14.1 on July 27)

•  August 5-7 brought a sharp heat ramp, with CDDs surging from 12.3 to 14.2 on August 7 — matching the hottest readings of the summer

• The late-week heat drove the East region's power burn up +0.56 Bcf/d WoW, but the early-week lull in the Midwest (-0.71 Bcf/d), South Central (-0.61 Bcf/d), and Mountain (-0.41 Bcf/d) kept the weekly average power burn significantly lower

Year-over-year, CDDs were significantly warmer at 12.6 vs 9.8 in the year-ago period, contributing to the +5.95 Bcf/d YoY increase in power burn (49.54 vs 43.59 Bcf/d).

Secondary Factors

LNG Feedgas: Down to 17.8 Bcf/d

Total LNG feedgas averaged 17.82 Bcf/d for the week, down -0.41 Bcf/d from the prior week's 18.23 Bcf/d but still +0.97 Bcf/d above year-ago levels. The decline was concentrated in a few facilities while others held steady or improved. Facility-level highlights:
•    Freeport saw the largest decline, falling to 1.58 Bcf/d (-0.27 WoW), suggesting possible maintenance or operational constraints
•    Corpus Christi pulled back to 2.84 Bcf/d (-0.19 WoW) after running above 3.0 Bcf/d the prior week
•    Cove Point eased to 0.75 Bcf/d (-0.07 WoW)
•    Plaquemines continued its ramp-up, rising to 3.87 Bcf/d (+0.05 WoW) — sustaining near-record throughput
•    Sabine Pass edged up to 4.48 Bcf/d (+0.02 WoW), maintaining its position as the largest terminal
•    Golden Pass continued commissioning at 0.30 Bcf/d (+0.02 WoW)
•    Cameron was flat at 2.01 Bcf/d
•    Elba Island ticked up to 0.37 Bcf/d (+0.04 WoW)

Mexico Exports: Modest Decline

Pipeline exports to Mexico eased slightly to 7.28 Bcf/d (-0.11 WoW), a modest bullish signal releasing ~0.8 Bcf back to the domestic market.

Residential/Commercial: Seasonal Easing

Combined Res/Com demand fell -0.38 Bcf/d to 8.04 Bcf/d (from 8.42 Bcf/d), consistent with mid-summer base-load easing. This freed approximately 2.7 Bcf over the week.

Industrial: Flat

Industrial demand was essentially unchanged at 22.01 Bcf/d (+0.04 WoW), a non-factor in the weekly balance.

Supply & Demand Factor Changes (WoW)

Note: The Balancing Factor captures the residual between independently modeled supply and demand components and the EIA storage. 

Methodology & Data Sources

Storage change modeled as: Total Supply (Dry Gas Production + Canadian Pipeline Imports) minus Total Demand (all consumption sectors + pipeline exports + balancing factor), multiplied by 7 days. The EIA storage week runs Saturday through Friday (e.g., the week ending August 7 covers Saturday August 1 through Friday August 7). Canadian pipeline imports are treated as a supply source supplementing domestic production, while Canadian pipeline exports are treated as demand (gas leaving the domestic market).

Data sources: SynMax daily production model (hdl.daily_production), SynMax demand model (hdl.gas_demand, baseline scenarios), SynMax LNG feedgas model (hdl.lng_feed_gas), EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, NOAA GFS/HRRR weather data (available via hdl.temperature_county, among others).

Disclaimer: This report is produced by SynMax Analytics for informational purposes only. Modeled figures are estimates and may differ from official EIA releases. Past model accuracy does not guarantee future performance.

As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.