Weekly Storage and S/D Brief - Week Ending 8/28/2026

Week Ending August 28, 2026

SynMax Analytics | Published September 2, 2026

Headline

SynMax models a +32 Bcf injection for the week ending August 28, roughly double the prior two weeks’ average injections of 16 and 15 Bcf. The increased injection is a purely a reduced temperatures story: national population-weighted CDDs eased to 11.1 (from 12.7), pulling CONUS power burn down -2.31 Bcf/d WoW to 48.30 Bcf/d while residential/commercial load shed another -0.71 Bcf/d. Total demand fell -3.05 Bcf/d — far outrunning a -0.51 Bcf/d dip in supply — and the daily surplus widened back out to 4.58 Bcf/d. If confirmed, working gas storage would stand at approximately 3,216 Bcf, about 46 Bcf below last year's pace but a comfortable +169 Bcf (+5.5%) above the five-year average.

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Model accuracy: Across the full scored window since July 3 (eight weeks, CONUS), the SynMax storage-number model has averaged a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.3 Bcf, a modest negative (under-injection) bias of -1.8 Bcf, and a 0.97 correlation with EIA-reported changes. Over the last five weeks the MAE tightens to 3.4 Bcf.

The accuracy table reflects SynMax’s latest supply/demand models and may differ modestly from the official weekly storage-number call scored directly against EIA releases.

Primary Driver: Power Burn Rolls Over as Heat Breaks

The defining feature of the week ending August 28 was a broad cooldown that pulled the demand side sharply lower. CONUS electric power demand fell -2.31 Bcf/d WoW to 48.30 Bcf/d — still +5.27 Bcf/d above the year-ago 43.03 Bcf/d, but well off the summer's 50-plus peaks — as national CDDs dropped by more than a degree-day and the late-summer heat relaxed across most of the country.

The decline was led by the East, where power burn fell -2.17 Bcf/d to 18.52 Bcf/d as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast cooled, and the Midwest, down -0.98 Bcf/d to 5.55 Bcf/d. The lone holdout was the South Central, where burn increased +0.36 Bcf/d to 16.23 Bcf/d (+2.73 Bcf/d YoY) as Texas and the Gulf Coast stayed hot. The Pacific ticked up +0.46 to 3.60 Bcf/d and the Mountain was essentially flat at 4.40 Bcf/d.

On the supply side, dry gas production eased -0.29 Bcf/d to 111.70 Bcf/d — still robust and running well above year-ago levels — while Canadian pipeline imports slipped -0.22 Bcf/d to 7.82 Bcf/d. The small supply give-back was dwarfed by the demand drop, so the weekly balance loosened materially and the injection re-accelerated.

Weather Context

National population-weighted CDDs averaged 11.1 for the week ending August 28, down from 12.7 the prior week but still well above the year-ago 8.1:

• The week ran consistently mild, with daily CDDs holding in a narrow 10.3-11.7 band (August 22-28) as no organized heat dome reformed
• The cooldown was broad rather than regional — every region except the South Central saw lower cooling demand week-over-week, the mirror image of the prior week's South-Central-concentrated heat
• Year-over-year, the +3.0 CDD gap (11.1 vs 8.1) still maps onto the +5.27 Bcf/d YoY increase in power burn, confirming demand strength remains predominantly weather-driven even as the absolute level cools

Supply & Demand Factor Changes (WoW)

Note: Canadian pipeline imports are treated as a supply source; Canadian pipeline exports are treated as demand (gas leaving the domestic market). The Balancing Factor captures the residual between independently modeled supply and demand components and is reported below the totals — it is folded into the implied change but excluded from Total Supply and Total Demand.

Secondary Factors

Residential/Commercial: Declines WoW

Combined Res/Com demand fell -0.71 Bcf/d to 7.86 Bcf/d, the second-largest single contributor to the demand decline after power burn. This is another bearish (loosening) factor for storage that reinforced the week's larger injection.

LNG Feedgas: Flat at 17.82 Bcf/d

Total LNG feedgas averaged 17.82 Bcf/d for the week, essentially unchanged (-0.01 Bcf/d) from the prior week's 17.83 Bcf/d. Gulf Coast throughput held steady with Plaquemines and Sabine Pass near capacity; feedgas was a non-factor in the week-over-week balance.

Mexico Exports & Industrial

Pipeline exports to Mexico edged up +0.09 Bcf/d to 7.69 Bcf/d, as cross-border cooling demand along the Texas–Mexico corridor persisted. Industrial demand was flat at 21.74 Bcf/d (-0.01 WoW), a non-factor in the weekly balance.

Regional Power Burn

The cooldown was broad: the East and Midwest together shed more than 3 Bcf/d of power burn week-over-week, while only the South Central bucked the trend as Texas heat lingered. Every region except the Pacific still ran above year-ago levels, keeping the CONUS YoY gain at a solid +5.27 Bcf/d.

Methodology & Data Sources

Storage change is modeled as Total Supply (Dry Gas Production + Canadian Pipeline Imports + LNG Imports) minus Total Demand (all consumption sectors + LNG feedgas exports + pipeline exports), with the Balancing Factor added as a calibration residual, multiplied by seven days. The EIA storage week runs Saturday through Friday (the week ending August 28 covers Saturday August 22 through Friday August 28). Canadian pipeline imports are treated as a supply source supplementing domestic production; Canadian pipeline exports are treated as demand. The Balancing Factor (+0.30 Bcf/d this week) represents the residual between independently modeled supply and demand components and calibrates the injection estimate against EIA actuals.

Data sources: Pipeline nomination data, EIA reporting, NOAA GFS/HRRR weather data.

Disclaimer: This report is produced by SynMax Analytics for informational purposes only. Modeled figures are estimates and may differ from official EIA releases. Past model accuracy does not guarantee future performance.