Since the Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28, JKM and TTF have been competing for every available molecule of flexible US LNG. The JKM-TTF spread widened to nearly $6/MMBtu by early March, and even after accounting for the higher shipping cost to Asia (~$3/MMBtu to Asia vs. ~$1/MMBtu to TTF), the delivered netback to Asia remains significantly more attractive, on the order of $2-3/MMBtu per cargo for May deliveries. With roughly half of all US LNG contracted on a destination-flexible FOB basis, portfolio players and traders have been actively re-optimizing mid-voyage, redirecting cargoes originally routed for Europe toward Asia via the Cape of Good Hope. That said, the June forward spread compresses to ~$2.20, barely covering the shipping differential, suggesting the redirect window may be front-loaded and could narrow unless prices dictate otherwise. We built this detection dashboard using SynMax's Leviaton AIS and LNG transaction data to systematically identify these interbasin redirections, putting most likely destination-flexible US cargo on the table.
The methodology is deliberately conservative. The agent pulls the full voyage AIS track for every laden US-origin LNG vessel currently in transit (109 at the time of this report), then checks whether its latitude reversed in the open Atlantic, a vessel that headed northeast toward Europe and then turned south toward the Cape of Good Hope will show a clear swing. To separate real redirections from routine US-to-Asia traders who follow a similar great-circle route, each vessel's 20-month delivery history is cross-referenced: a vessel with 10 consecutive European deliveries and zero Asia trips now heading to Yangshan leaves no ambiguity; a dedicated India carrier following its normal Cape route is correctly excluded. Each flagged vessel is scored on four criteria, track swing magnitude, geographic position, trade history pattern, and forecast model agreement - with a minimum threshold of 3/4 for high confidence classification.
As of April 1, the dashboard flags 11 US LNG cargoes totaling 41.1 BCF that have redirected from Europe to Asia since the crisis began, approximately 10.5% of all US-origin volume currently in transit. Nine are classified as high confidence and two as moderate confidence. All 11 are Europe-to-Asia; no Asia-to-Europe redirections have been detected with this methodology, consistent with the sustained JKM premium. The cargoes are sourced across five US terminals and forecast to deliver across seven Asian destinations including Map Ta Phut, Dahej, Yangshan, and Yung-An. Two vessels are already approaching their Asian destinations.
This is a point-in-time snapshot, vessels can change course again before delivery, and the dashboard only captures redirections currently in transit. The methodology relies on AIS track data and historical delivery patterns, not commercial intelligence, we cannot see underlying contracts, charter parties, or buyer intentions, and some flagged vessels may have been contracted for Asian delivery from the start. That said, the framework is flexible: using SynMax's Leviaton data and Agents platform, you can define your own criteria, adjust confidence thresholds, filter by load terminal or charterer, set custom trade history windows, and build a tracking model tailored to your specific trading or risk management needs.
As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.