We are revising our expectations for when DTIL’d wells will come online. Previously we believed operators would turn these in line in November or December. We now believe these will not come online until 2025.
Expand Energy, formerly Chesapeake and SWN, in their Q3’24 earnings presentation have presented plans for their DTIL inventory which shows a gradual, rather than sudden strategy for bringing these wells online throughout 2025.
These changes will primarily impact the STF in the regions of NE PA and Haynesville - LA. The below charts show the impact on our forecast from the revised DTIL assumption. The new STF forecast will be posted with our next data update, which will occur on Sunday.
Long Term Forecast
We will also be updating our Long Term Forecast (LTF) to reflect our revised expectations for DTILs as well as continued anemic frac crew commitments by operators. The new forecast will be published at 9:30am CST on Monday 11/11. The changes will simultaneously be released on our front end Energy Dashboard, our API, Excel add-in and will be sent via email.
DTIL Inventory Accuracy
Expand Energy revealed in their Q3’24 earnings presentation that on 10/1/24, one day prior to the merger with SWN, that their DTIL inventory was 58 wells. This closely matches the 57 wells we show for the same date.
Expand Q3’24 Earnings presentation showing a DTIL inventory of 58 wells on 10/1/24
SynMax CHK DTIL inventory of 57 wells as of 10/1/24
Of note, we are excluding wellpad 189781 from the inventory, we first observed this wellpad TILing on 10/3/24 but due to gaps in satellite imagery believe it began TILing earlier.
Wellpad 189781 showing TIL activity 10/3/24 and no TIL activity 9/29/24. TIL operations likely began earlier than our first TIL observation so we are excluding it from the 10/1/24 DTIL inventory.
