Natural gas production for the first two days in November has seen a near 4 Bcf/d drop for Sunday and Monday at around 109 Bcf/d as compared to Saturday levels at 113 Bcf. Cash prices at Dominion South for weekend delivery were at 96 cents per MMBtu, indicative of stress in the system with continued mild winter demand and a number of OFOs, maintenance events, and planned service outages in the Northeast.
Equitrans issued an OFO beginning on October 31, which could be impacting production by as much as 0.7 Bcf/d on 11/01 and 11/02 in Southwest Pennsylvania (SW PA). Texas Eastern pipeline in the M2 & M3 zones have OFOs beginning November 1st, and still in effect for today) which may be impacting production of up to 0.43 Bcf/d and 0.22 Bcf/d in SW PA and West Virginia (WV), respectively. Dominion pipeline’s (EGTS) Valley Gate and TL-360 are seeing restrictions which could be impacting another 0.2 Bcf/d in SW PA and WV.
Transwestern pipeline has had a force majeure in place which could be impacting about 0.12 Bcf/d in West TX. Northern Natural Gas pipeline issued a planned service outage and may limit production of around 0.14 Bcf/d in West TX. El Paso pipeline also has a force majeure in place and may be limiting production in Permian NM by around 0.03 Bcf/d. There has also been some chatter about one of the Kinder Morgan pipelines limiting injections on one of their Texas intrastate pipelines beginning November 2, but there aren’t any publicly available notices for confirmation. If true, it would cause production in Permian and South Texas to drop. The table below lists some of the details on notices, planned service outages and OFOs potentially impacting production for early November. The table is also in the dashboard with direct links to the pipeline notifications.
November typically sees a production rebound as compared to October. However, if November is abnormally warm, such as what is currently happening, then November can witness significant production drops in the early half of the month as the entire pipeline system becomes stressed. Storage levels then bump up against capacity in addition to hitting ratchets and limitations. This is especially the case in the Northeast and to a lesser extent Texas and Haynesville.
Read the full analysis on the dashboard.
As usual, contact support@synmax.com with questions.